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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 December 154 340 0.2 154 340 0.2 154 340 0.2 2015 March 154 220 -0.1 154 138 -0.1 154 313 0.0 June 154 335 0.1 154 371 0.2 154 312 0.0 September 154 707 0.2 155 025 0.4 154 187 -0.1

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 December 64 014 -1.2 64 014 -1.2 64 014 -1.2 2015 March 64 064 0.1 63 852 -0.3 64 186 0.3 June 64 125 0.1 64 192 0.5 64 076 -0.2 September 64 304 0.3 65 172 1.5 63 565 -0.8