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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2013 December 150 332 -0.7 150 332 -0.7 150 332 -0.7 2014 March 149 445 -0.6 149 258 -0.7 149 428 -0.6 June 149 424 0.0 149 483 0.2 149 425 0.0 September 149 973 0.4 150 553 0.7 149 737 0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.2% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.2% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2013 December 68 677 2.0 68 677 2.0 68 677 2.0 2014 March 68 140 -0.8 68 047 -0.9 68 384 -0.4 June 66 535 -2.4 66 599 -2.1 66 482 -2.8 September 64 740 -2.7 65 977 -0.9 64 358 -3.2