• Summary
• Downloads
• Explanatory Notes
• Related Information
• Past Releases

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 December 157 221 0.3 157 221 0.3 157 221 0.3 2013 March 157 208 0.0 157 160 0.0 157 345 0.1 June 157 010 -0.1 157 038 -0.1 156 976 -0.2 September 156 814 -0.1 157 271 0.1 156 381 -0.4

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.4% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.4% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2012 December 62 224 0.1 62 224 0.1 62 224 0.1 2013 March 63 378 1.9 63 165 1.5 63 511 2.1 June 64 994 2.5 65 040 3.0 64 920 2.2 September 66 515 2.3 67 068 3.1 65 405 0.7