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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2009 December 145 140 0.3 145 140 0.3 145 140 0.3 2010 March 145 832 0.5 145 806 0.5 145 978 0.6 June 145 941 0.1 145 949 0.1 145 891 -0.1 September 145 682 -0.2 145 920 0.0 145 095 -0.5

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 5.1% on this quarter (1) falls by 5.1% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2009 December 55 599 3.7 55 599 3.7 55 599 3.7 2010 March 57 912 4.2 57 886 4.1 58 244 4.8 June (a)66 767 (a)na (a)66 773 (a)na (a)66 634 (a)na September 67 996 1.8 68 252 2.2 66 325 -0.5 na not available (a) Break in series between this quarter and preceding quarter.