WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.
1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.
2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.
Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)
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| | | | What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| | Trend as published | (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter | (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter |
| | $m | % change | $m | % change | $m | % change |
|
2006 | | | | | | |
| December | 109 532 | 0.1 | 109 534 | 0.1 | 109 534 | 0.1 |
2007 | | | | | | |
| March | 110 539 | 0.9 | 110 463 | 0.8 | 110 609 | 1.0 |
| June | 111 718 | 1.1 | 111 728 | 1.1 | 111 678 | 1.0 |
| September | 112 876 | 1.0 | 112 934 | 1.1 | 112 233 | 0.5 |
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Company gross operating profits (Current prices)
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| | | | What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: |
| | Trend as published | (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter | (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter |
| | $m | % change | $m | % change | $m | % change |
|
2006 | | | | | | |
| December | 43 733 | 1.7 | 43 733 | 1.7 | 43 733 | 1.7 |
2007 | | | | | | |
| March | (a)46 829 | (a)na | (a)46 765 | (a)na | (a)47 023 | (a)na |
| June | 47 034 | 0.4 | 47 060 | 0.6 | 46 970 | -0.1 |
| September | 46 985 | -0.1 | 47 455 | 0.8 | 46 214 | -1.6 |
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na not available |
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. See paragraph 23 of the Technical Notes for more information. |
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