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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2007 June 111 823 1.0 111 824 1.0 111 824 1.0 September 112 935 1.0 112 919 1.0 113 068 1.1 December 114 004 0.9 114 008 1.0 113 958 0.8 2008 March 115 048 0.9 115 121 1.0 114 407 0.4

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2007 June 47 058 0.7 47 058 0.7 47 058 0.7 September 47 653 1.3 47 520 1.0 47 797 1.6 December 48 568 1.9 48 610 2.3 48 514 1.5 2008 March 49 609 2.1 50 154 3.2 48 823 0.6