• Summary
• Downloads
• Explanatory Notes
• Related Information
• Past Releases

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 September 154 339 0.0 154 339 0.0 154 339 0.0 December 154 073 -0.2 153 964 -0.2 154 138 -0.1 2016 March 153 922 -0.1 153 958 0.0 153 899 -0.2 June 153 830 -0.1 154 355 0.3 153 520 -0.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2015 September 63 423 -1.5 63 423 -1.5 63 423 -1.5 December 62 254 -1.8 61 943 -2.3 62 272 -1.8 2016 March 61 653 -1.0 61 758 -0.3 61 644 -1.0 June 61 652 0.0 63 116 2.2 61 534 -0.2