• Summary
• Downloads
• Explanatory Notes
• Related Information
• Past Releases

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 December 25 577 -3.3 25 577 -3.3 25 577 -3.3 2013 March 25 387 -0.7 25 279 -1.2 25 347 -0.9 June 25 903 2.0 25 935 2.6 25 909 2.2 September 26 713 3.1 26 940 3.9 26 609 2.7

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 December 14 398 -1.2 14 398 -1.2 14 398 -1.2 2013 March 14 035 -2.5 14 011 -2.7 14 041 -2.5 June 13 723 -2.2 13 736 -2.0 13 726 -2.2 September 13 520 -1.5 13 665 -0.5 13 522 -1.5

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2012 December 39 976 -2.5 39 976 -2.5 39 976 -2.5 2013 March 39 423 -1.4 39 290 -1.7 39 388 -1.5 June 39 625 0.5 39 665 1.0 39 631 0.6 September 40 271 1.6 40 599 2.4 40 128 1.3