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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 December 12 545 -3.2 12 815 -1.6 12 815 -1.6 2010 March 12 939 3.1 13 201 3.0 13 324 4.0 June 13 838 7.0 14 139 7.1 14 091 5.8 September 14 842 7.3 15 178 7.4 14 584 3.5

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.2% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.2% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 December 14 636 1.8 14 636 1.8 14 636 1.8 2010 March 14 379 -1.8 14 357 -1.9 14 422 -1.5 June 13 819 -3.9 13 832 -3.7 13 810 -4.2 September 13 161 -4.8 13 544 -2.1 13 234 -4.2

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.3% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.3% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 December 27 144 -0.1 27 144 -0.1 27 144 -0.1 2010 March 27 333 0.7 27 232 0.3 27 368 0.8 June 27 652 1.2 27 681 1.6 27 634 1.0 September 28 061 1.5 28 530 3.1 27 880 0.9