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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 6.8% on this quarter (2) falls by 6.8% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 June 13 611 -3.1 13 611 -3.1 13 611 -3.1 September 13 126 -3.6 13 023 -4.3 13 132 -3.5 December 13 021 -0.8 13 055 0.2 13 013 -0.9 2010 March 13 103 0.6 13 523 3.6 12 999 -0.1

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 June 13 517 -1.2 13 517 -1.2 13 517 -1.2 September 13 821 2.2 13 799 2.1 13 867 2.6 December 14 235 3.0 14 237 3.2 14 213 2.5 2010 March 14 574 2.4 14 535 2.1 14 208 - - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2009 June 26 927 -2.4 26 927 -2.4 26 927 -2.4 September 26 807 -0.4 26 702 -0.8 26 832 -0.4 December 27 225 1.6 27 250 2.1 27 205 1.4 2010 March 27 753 1.9 27 969 2.6 27 343 0.5