5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Jun 2017 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/08/2017   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $30,549m and the calculated standard error in this case is $468m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $30,549m.

For instance, the standard error of $468m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $30,081m to $31,017m ($30,549m $468m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $29,613m to $31,485m ($30,549m $936m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2017 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
40
48
72
Manufacturing
49
110
129
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
19
31
36
Construction
22
218
217
Wholesale Trade
39
81
90
Retail Trade
90
106
155
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
26
164
172
Information Media and Telecommunications
1
33
33
Financial and Insurance Services
14
45
50
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
143
97
149
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
17
72
77
Other Selected Services
82
108
141
Total
217
405
468
New South Wales
78
236
249
Victoria
95
180
211
Queensland
157
234
300
South Australia
53
87
106
Western Australia
47
86
97
Tasmania
4
24
24
Northern Territory
16
10
19
Australian Capital Territory
5
21
21
Australia
217
405
468




MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $25,073m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $30,549m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $384m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $5,476m.

For instance, the standard error of $384m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $5,092m to $5,860 ($5,476m $384m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $4,708m to $6,244m ($5,476m $768m)

The following table shows the standard errors for June Quarter 2017 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m

Mining
38
25
31
Manufacturing
34
84
88
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
18
40
46
Construction
16
211
212
Wholesale Trade
39
76
90
Retail Trade
84
123
175
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
22
189
192
Information Media and Telecommunications
1
34
34
Financial and Insurance Services
5
65
65
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
110
76
143
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
36
92
97
Other Selected Services
86
108
130
Total
159
341
384
New South Wales
91
210
255
Victoria
84
178
195
Queensland
91
226
256
South Australia
33
101
108
Western Australia
56
105
115
Tasmania
16
23
28
Northern Territory
26
11
28
Australian Capital Territory
19
16
23
Australia
159
341
384