5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/02/2015   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $41,319m and the calculated standard error in this case is $500m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $41,319m.

For instance, the standard error of $500m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $40,819m to $41,819m ($41,319m ± $500m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $40,319m to $42,319m ($41,319m ± $1,000m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2014 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
19
29
43
Manufacturing
27
114
123
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
39
13
43
Construction
97
302
312
Wholesale Trade
79
62
99
Retail Trade
64
84
109
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
22
117
119
Information Media and Telecommunications
36
7
36
Financial and Insurance Services
47
52
69
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
203
205
276
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
26
75
86
Other Selected Services
102
121
165
Total
282
425
500
New South Wales
103
195
220
Victoria
71
193
210
Queensland
153
255
286
South Australia
120
104
162
Western Australia
158
112
212
Tasmania
3
17
17
Northern Territory
69
14
73
Australian Capital Territory
8
24
25
Australia
282
425
500



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $39,039m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $41,319m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $499m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $2,280m.

For instance, the standard error of $499m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two quarter period falls within the range $1,781m to $2,779m ($2,280m ± $499m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $1,282m to $3,278m ($2,280m ± $998m)

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2014 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
64
81
119
Manufacturing
56
106
114
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
23
24
30
Construction
88
362
364
Wholesale Trade
82
88
102
Retail Trade
35
110
116
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
36
139
147
Information Media and Telecommunications
12
8
15
Financial and Insurance Services
32
53
64
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
185
157
257
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
26
85
92
Other Selected Services
87
164
178
Total
267
462
499
New South Wales
128
192
231
Victoria
44
217
216
Queensland
141
256
288
South Australia
142
99
177
Western Australia
77
209
227
Tasmania
19
19
27
Northern Territory
67
39
34
Australian Capital Territory
9
59
61
Australia
267
462
499