5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Sep 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 10/11/2014   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The October 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the September 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The October 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the September 2014 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
March 2014
52 006
0.1
52 006
0.1
52 006
0.1
April 2014
52 098
0.2
52 086
0.2
52 128
0.2
May 2014
52 139
0.1
52 118
0.1
52 191
0.1
June 2014
52 088
-0.1
52 079
-0.1
52 116
-0.1
July 2014
51 991
-0.2
52 018
-0.1
51 921
-0.4
August 2014
51 871
-0.2
51 995
0.0
51 675
-0.5
September 2014
51 784
-0.2
52 003
0.0
51 400
-0.5