ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in May 2008 was a deficit of $935m, a decrease of $158m (14%) on the revised deficit in April 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in May 2008 was a deficit of $965m, a turnaround of $977m on April 2008 which was effectively in balance.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $386m (2%) between April and May to $21,428m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $315m (1%) to $21,871m. Non-rural goods rose $618m (5%), rural goods rose $51m (2%) and other goods fell $386m (27%). Services credits rose $32m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $49m (2%) to $2,386m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $51m (2%) to $2,418m.

The components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $86m (16%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $28m (5%).

Partly offsetting these effects was the other rural component, down $61m (6%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $270m (11%) to $2,652m.

Non-rural goods

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $326m (2%) to $13,412m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $618m (5%) to $14,001m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $309m (13%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $233m (5%)
• other mineral fuels, up $115m (7%)
• transport equipment, up $60m (13%)
• metals (excl. gold), up $60m (5%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• other manufactures, down $92m (6%)
• other non-rural, down $44m (4%)
• machinery, down $22m (3%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,216m (9%) to $14,332m.

Revised contract prices have been announced for coal but are not fully reflected in information provided to the ABS via Customs documentation. Despite this, these series have not been adjusted as, historically, new coal prices have not taken effect immediately and unit prices for coal can vary due to the quality of the commodity. However, it is possible that some exporters may revise their Customs documentation in coming months.

The unit price of metallurgical coal increased by 45% between March and May 2008 and non-metallurgical coal increased by 18% over this period.

The value of iron ore for April and May 2008 has been adjusted in the balance of payments series presented in this publication to account for the anticipated backdating of new contract prices (see Iron Ore Prices Adjustment on page 4 for more details).

Other goods

In trend terms, export of other goods fell $21m (2%) to $1,245m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $386m (27%) to $1,068m with non-monetary gold, down $376m (30%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $382m (26%) to $1,070m.


Exports of Services


In trend terms, services credits rose $31m (1%) to $4,385m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $32m (1%) to $4,384m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• travel services, up $21m (1%)
• other services, up $8m (1%)
• transportation services, up $4m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $8m to $2,730m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the components in services credits.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $228m (1%) between April and May to $22,364m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,292m (6%) to $22,836m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $803m (10%), consumption goods rose $386m (8%) and other goods rose $64m (7%) while capital goods fell $2m. Services debits rose $41m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $16m to $5,189m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $386m (8%) to $5,326m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non industrial transport equipment, up $166m (12%)
• consumption goods nes, up $113m (8%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $71m (1%) to $5,044m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $29m (1%) to $3,883m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $2m to $3,745m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment nes, down $34m (5%)
• ADP equipment, down $28m (5%)
• civil aircraft, down $22m (14%).

Partly offsetting these effects was the machinery and industrial equipment component, up $67m (5%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $1m to $3,730m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $180m (2%) to $8,251m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $803m (10%) to $8,674m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $466m (17%). In original terms, crude petroleum oils decreased $191m (13%) with volumes down 22% while refined petroleum oils increased $657m (57%) with volumes up 44% of which:
  • diesel increased $393m
  • jet fuel increased $132m.
• processed industrial supplies nes, up $223m (13%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $634m (8%) to $8,763m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $37m (4%) to $911m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $64m (7%) to $953m. The main component contributing to the rise was goods for processing, up $135m which was partially offset by non-monetary gold, down $74m (10%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $23m (1%) to $4,129m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $41m (1%) to $4,139m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $23m (2%)
• other services, up $11m (1%)
• travel services, up $6m

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $21m (1%) to $2,138m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the components in services debits.