ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,707m in September 2018, an increase of $308m on the surplus in August 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,017m in September 2018, an increase of $675m on the surplus in August 2018.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2018 was a surplus of $7,266m, an increase of $3,100m on the surplus of $4,166m for the three months to June 2018. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2018 surplus was $6,404m, an increase of $2,201m on the June quarter 2018 surplus of $4,203m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				1 907	2 342	3 017	675	29
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			36 753	37 213	37 496	283	1
		Total goods		28 868	29 153	29 340	187	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 044	4 178	4 211	33	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	23 011	22 934	23 612	678	3
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	18	18	19	1	6
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 795	2 023	1 498	-525	-26
		Total services		7 885	8 060	8 156	96	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 845	-34 871	-34 479	-392	-1
		Total goods		-26 782	-26 717	-26 314	-403	-2
			Consumption goods	-8 618	-8 629	-8 682	53	1
			Capital goods	-6 143	-6 695	-6 088	-607	-9
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 314	-10 975	-11 185	210	2
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-707	-418	-359	-59	-14
		Total services		-8 063	-8 154	-8 165	11	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				2 072	2 399	2 707	308	13
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			36 783	37 172	37 499	327	1
		Total goods		28 885	29 173	29 403	230	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 122	4 150	4 180	30	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	22 918	23 186	23 419	233	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	13	16	19	3	19
			Non-monetary gold	1 831	1 820	1 786	-34	-2
		Total services		7 899	7 999	8 096	97	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 711	-34 773	-34 793	20	-
		Total goods		-26 650	-26 674	-26 654	-20	-
			Consumption goods	-8 653	-8 657	-8 681	24	-
			Capital goods	-6 371	-6 372	-6 362	-10	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 037	-11 119	-11 155	36	-
			Non-monetary gold	-588	-526	-456	-70	-13
		Total services		-8 061	-8 099	-8 139	40	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $327m (1%) to $37,499m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $283m (1%) to $37,496m. Non-rural goods rose $678m (3%), rural goods rose $33m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (6%). Non-monetary gold fell $525m (26%). Services credits rose $96m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				28 868	29 153	29 340	187	1
	General merchandise			27 055	27 112	27 823	711	3
		Rural goods		4 044	4 178	4 211	33	1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 185	1 244	1 212	-32	-3
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	629	553	564	11	2
			Wool and sheepskins	347	383	428	45	12
			Other rural(a)	1 884	1 999	2 006	7	-
		Non-rural goods		23 011	22 934	23 612	678	3
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 642	7 456	8 007	551	7
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 673	5 547	5 406	-141	-3
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	4 381	4 672	4 942	270	6
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 359	1 189	1 097	-92	-8
			Machinery	926	893	889	-4	-
			Transport equipment	329	345	395	50	14
			Other manufactures	1 869	1 854	1 884	30	2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	655	807	805	-2	-
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	176	172	187	15	9
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			18	18	19	1	6
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 795	2 023	1 498	-525	-26
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $30m (1%) to $4,180m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $33m (1%) to $4,211m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• wool and sheepskins, up $45m (12%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $11m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was meat and meat preparations, down $32m (3%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $233m (1%) to $23,419m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $678m (3%) to $23,612m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $551m (7%)
• other mineral fuels, up $270m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was coal, coke and briquettes, down $141m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $3m (19%) to $19m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (6%) to $19m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $34m (2%) to $1,786m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $525m (26%) to $1,498m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 885	8 060	8 156	96	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		2	3	2	-1	-33
	Transport		662	668	672	4	1
		Passenger(b)	244	250	252	2	1
		Freight(c)	23	23	22	-1	-4
		Other	259	258	260	2	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	136	137	138	1	1
	Travel		5 128	5 280	5 376	96	2
	Other services		2 093	2 109	2 107	-2	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 372	5 530	5 627	97	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $97m (1%) to $8,096m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $96m (1%) to $8,156m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $96m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $97m (2%) to $5,627m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 22% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $20m to $34,793m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $392m (1%) to $34,479m. Capital goods fell $607m (9%) and non-monetary gold fell $59m (14%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $210m (2%) and consumption goods rose $53m (1%). Services debits rose $11m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 782	-26 717	-26 314	-403	-2
	General merchandise			-26 075	-26 299	-25 955	-344	-1
		Consumption goods		-8 618	-8 629	-8 682	53	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 259	-1 295	-1 338	43	3
			Household electrical items	-519	-493	-529	36	7
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 000	-2 025	-1 973	-52	-3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 529	-1 539	-1 555	16	1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-570	-544	-558	14	3
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 740	-2 734	-2 728	-6	-
		Capital goods		-6 143	-6 695	-6 088	-607	-9
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 994	-2 046	-1 939	-107	-5
			ADP equipment	-935	-998	-973	-25	-3
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 063	-1 183	-1 170	-13	-1
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-249	-670	-371	-299	-45
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 209	-1 127	-1 083	-44	-4
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-693	-672	-553	-119	-18
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-11 314	-10 975	-11 185	210	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-145	-158	-150	-8	-5
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-191	-323	-229	-94	-29
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 732	-3 263	-3 536	273	8
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 095	-1 073	-1 082	9	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-48	-47	-50	3	6
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 529	-1 564	-1 507	-57	-4
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-323	-305	-290	-15	-5
			Paper and paperboard	-201	-203	-208	5	2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-129	-122	-129	7	6
			Iron and steel	-338	-258	-310	52	20
			Plastics	-403	-403	-416	13	3
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 015	-3 009	-3 130	121	4
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-39	-120	-21	-99	-83
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-127	-127	-128	1	1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-707	-418	-359	-59	-14
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $24m to $8,681m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $8,682m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $43m (3%)
• household electrical items, up $36m (7%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $16m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was non-industrial transport equipment, down $52m (3%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $10m to $6,362m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $607m (9%) to $6,088m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $299m (45%)
• capital goods n.e.s., down $119m (18%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $107m (5%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $44m (4%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $36m to $11,155m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $210m (2%) to $11,185m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $273m (8%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $121m (4%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• other merchandise goods, down $99m (83%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $94m (29%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $70m (13%) to $456m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $59m (14%) to $359m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018	Sep 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 063	-8 154	-8 165	11	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-89	-50	-67	17	34
	Transport		-1 523	-1 545	-1 567	22	1
		Passenger(c)	-610	-605	-614	9	1
		Freight	-825	-852	-864	12	1
		Other(b)	-81	-81	-82	1	1
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-7	-7	-	-
	Travel		-4 081	-4 173	-4 140	-33	-1
	Other services		-2 370	-2 385	-2 391	6	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 691	-4 779	-4 754	-25	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $40m to $8,139m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $11m to $8,165m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $22m (1%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $17m (34%).

Partly offsetting these rises was travel, down $33m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $25m (1%) to $4,754m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jul 2018	Aug 2018	Sep 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	2	3	-	-4	-3	1
	Unit value	-5	1	2	5	-	5
Fines
	Quantity	6	4	-2	-12	9	-1
	Unit value	-6	-1	-2	2	1	4
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-10	25	6	-11	-4	8
	Unit value	-6	p-1	-2	2	p-1	-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-14	23	3	-20	14	-6
	Unit value	2	-	-	2	p-1	p-1
Thermal
	Quantity	7	-7	13	10	-9	-8
	Unit value	-5	3	3	6	6	-2
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-2	-8	11	16	-	-4
	Unit value	4	4	2	3	6	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August and September 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $97m (6%), with quantities up 1% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $167m (15%), with quantities up 10% and unit values up 5%
• Japan fell $68m (29%), with quantities down 30% and unit values up 1%.

Iron ore fines, up $106m (3%), with quantities down 1% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $203m (7%), with quantities up 3% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea fell $53m (24%), with quantities down 26% and unit values up 2%
• Japan fell $44m (17%), with quantities down 18% and unit values up 1%.

Hard coking coal, up $162m (7%), with quantities up 8% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• Vietnam rose $62m, with unit values up 3%
• India rose $59m (10%), with quantities up 10% and unit values down 1%
• Ukraine rose $58m, following no exports in August 2018
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $54m (8%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 2%
• Netherlands fell $96m (57%), with quantities down 56% and unit values down 2%.

Semi-soft coal, down $69m (7%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $48m (29%), with quantities down 32% and unit values up 4%
• India fell $31m (17%), with quantities down 13% and unit values down 5%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $20m (18%), with quantities up 21% and unit values down 3%.

Thermal coal, down $232m (10%), with quantities down 8% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $247m (21%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $126m (29%), with quantities down 30% and unit values up 2%
• Vietnam rose $42m, with unit values down 12%
• India rose $34m (73%), with quantities up 90% and unit values down 9%
• Netherlands rose $30m, following no exports in August 2018.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $85m (2%), with quantities down 4% and unit values up 2%.