ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,368m in September 2010, an increase of $30m on the revised surplus in August 2010.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,760m in September 2010, a decrease of $686m on the revised surplus in August 2010.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2010 was a surplus of $5,910m, a decrease of $806m on the surplus of $6,716m for the three months to June 2010. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2010 surplus was $5,773m, a decrease of $797m on the revised June quarter 2010 surplus of $6,570m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2010 and September 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $79m to $24,942m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $373m (2%) to $24,151m. Non-rural goods fell $483m (3%) and rural goods fell $198m (8%). Non-monetary gold rose $306m (36%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (7%). Services credits remained steady.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $2m to $2,390m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $198m (8%) to $2,204m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural goods, down $204m (18%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $42m (7%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, up $65m (14%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $32m to $16,986m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $483m (3%) to $16,326m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, down $243m (12%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $216m (5%)
• machinery, down $112m (14%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the metal ores and minerals component, up $254m (4%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities table at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (4%) to $29m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (7%) to $29m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $54m (5%) to $1,092m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $306m (36%) to $1,146m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $8m to $4,444m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits remained steady at $4,446m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $6m to $3,006m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2010 and September 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $110m to $22,573m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $313m (1%) to $22,391m. Non-monetary gold rose $333m and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $185m (2%). Capital goods fell $163m (4%) and consumption goods fell $1m. Services debits fell $41m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes decreased about 1.3% during the September quarter 2010 and the implicit price deflator rose 0.5%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 0.8% while the implicit price deflator rose 0.5%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the September quarter 2010 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $14m to $5,543m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $1m to $5,502m with no significant movement in any component.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $56m (1%) to $4,001m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $163m (4%) to $3,844m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $141m (23%)
• telecommunications equipment, down $111m (16%).

Partly offsetting these decreases were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $82m (34%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $81m (6%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $19m to $7,905m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $185m (2%) to $7,789m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $229m (11%).

Partly offsetting this increase was the organic and inorganic chemicals component, down $54m (13%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $59m (13%) to $413m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $333m to $603m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $12m to $4,712m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $41m (1%) to $4,653m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $31m (3%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $12m (52%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $4m to $2,533m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis
		Apr 2010	May 2010	Jun 2010	Jul 2010	Aug 2010	Sep 2010
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(a)
Lump
	Volumes	-9	5	-4	2	-4	10
	Price	42	10	6	9	-2	np
Fines
	Volumes	5	-3	11	-9	2	6
	Price	38	13	4	5	-2	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	41	2	9	-28	37	-14
	Price	12	13	5	2	-9	-
Semi-soft
	Volumes	15	11	-3	-1	-10	-7
	Price	28	20	9	-	-6	-8
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	22	-9	15	4	4	6
	Price	3	12	5	-2	-2	-2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) The equivalent Balance of Payments series includes adjustments which impact on percentage change of prices for September 2010. For more information see Commodity prices adjustment for details.

Between August and September 2010 exports of hard coking coal decreased $282m (13%) on a recorded trade basis. Exports to Japan decreased $103m (20%) and to China decreased $94m (32%).