Analysis and comments


Balance on goods and services

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,341m in October 2019, a decrease of $229m on the surplus in September 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $4,502m in October 2019, a decrease of $2,345m on the surplus in September 2019.

Goods and services summary(a), Seasonally adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally adjusted
Balance on goods and services				6 591	6 847	4 502	-2 345	-34
Credits
	Total goods and services			41 766	42 955	40 750	-2 205	-5
		Total goods		33 232	34 348	32 100	-2 248	-7
			Rural goods(b)	3 751	4 024	4 138	114	3
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 332	27 617	25 907	-1 710	-6
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	15	15	29	14	93
			Non-monetary gold(c)	2 134	2 692	2 026	-666	-25
		Total services		8 534	8 606	8 651	45	1
Debits
	Total goods and services			-35 176	-36 108	-36 248	140	-
		Total goods		-26 466	-27 380	-27 560	180	1
			Consumption goods	-8 726	-8 836	-9 170	334	4
			Capital goods	-6 032	-6 737	-6 585	-152	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 608	-11 080	-11 336	256	2
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-1 100	-727	-469	-258	-35
		Total services		-8 709	-8 728	-8 688	-40	-
Trend(d)
Balance on goods and services				6 813	6 570	6 341	-229	-3
Credits
	Total goods and services			42 171	42 106	42 024	-82	-
		Total goods		33 631	33 515	33 394	-121	-
			Rural goods(b)	3 873	3 918	3 974	56	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 456	27 196	26 978	-218	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	17	19	20	1	5
			Non-monetary gold	2 285	2 382	2 421	39	2
		Total services		8 540	8 591	8 631	40	-
Debits
	Total goods and services			-35 358	-35 536	-35 683	147	-
		Total goods		-26 699	-26 852	-26 986	134	-
			Consumption goods	-8 793	-8 870	-8 935	65	1
			Capital goods	-6 244	-6 244	-6 251	7	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 894	-10 964	-11 041	77	1
			Non-monetary gold	-768	-774	-759	-15	-2
		Total services		-8 659	-8 683	-8 698	15	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

Exports of goods and services

Between September and October 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $82m to $42,024m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $2,205m (5%) to $40,750m. Non-rural goods fell $1,710m (6%) and non-monetary gold fell $666m (25%). Rural goods rose $114m (3%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $14m (93%). Services credits rose $45m (1%).

Exports of goods


Goods credits

Goods credits, Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				33 232	34 348	32 100	-2 248	-7
	General merchandise			31 083	31 641	30 045	-1 596	-5
		Rural goods		3 751	4 024	4 138	114	3
			Meat and meat preparations	1 394	1 434	1 487	53	4
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	438	530	558	28	5
			Wool and sheepskins	186	218	237	19	9
			Other rural(a)	1 734	1 842	1 856	14	1
		Non-rural goods		27 332	27 617	25 907	-1 710	-6
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	11 515	11 634	10 369	-1 265	-11
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 243	4 885	4 646	-239	-5
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 121	5 481	5 134	-347	-6
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 027	1 155	990	-165	-14
			Machinery	967	978	1 117	139	14
			Transport equipment	328	402	443	41	10
			Other manufactures	2 059	2 046	2 180	134	7
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	930	898	890	-8	-1
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	142	138	138	-	-
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			15	15	29	14	93
	Non-monetary gold(e)			2 134	2 692	2 026	-666	-25
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

Rural goods

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $56m (1%) to $3,974m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $114m (3%) to $4,138m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, up $53m (4%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $28m (5%).

Non-rural goods

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $218m (1%) to $26,978m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,710m (6%) to $25,907m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $1,265m (11%)
• other mineral fuels, down $347m (6%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $239m (5%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $165m (14%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• machinery, up $139m (14%)
• other manufactures, up $134m (7%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


Net exports of goods under merchanting

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (5%) to $20m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $14m (93%) to $29m.


Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $39m (2%) to $2,421m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $666m (25%) to $2,026m.


Exports of services


Services credits

Services credits, Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			8 534	8 606	8 651	45	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	4	4	-	-
	Transport		664	671	675	4	1
		Passenger(b)	271	275	275	-	-
		Freight(c)	23	22	24	2	9
		Other	259	260	263	3	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	112	114	114	-	-
	Travel		5 556	5 609	5 676	67	1
	Other services		2 309	2 322	2 297	-25	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 827	5 884	5 950	66	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $40m to $8,631m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $45m (1%) to $8,651m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $67m (1%).

Partly offsetting this rise was other services, down $25m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $66m (1%) to $5,950m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


Imports of goods and services

Between September and October 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $147m to $35,683m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $140m to $36,248m. Consumption goods rose $334m (4%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $256m (2%). Non-monetary gold fell $258m (35%) and capital goods fell $152m (2%). Services debits fell $40m.


Imports of goods


Goods debits

Goods debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 466	-27 380	-27 560	180	1
	General merchandise			-25 366	-26 653	-27 091	438	2
		Consumption goods		-8 726	-8 836	-9 170	334	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 452	-1 391	-1 462	71	5
			Household electrical items	-485	-493	-518	25	5
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 939	-2 006	-2 163	157	8
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 528	-1 601	-1 618	17	1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-552	-551	-564	13	2
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 771	-2 794	-2 845	51	2
		Capital goods		-6 032	-6 737	-6 585	-152	-2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 995	-1 946	-2 071	125	6
			ADP equipment	-891	-934	-1 020	86	9
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 191	-1 314	-1 285	-29	-2
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-294	-366	-431	65	18
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-982	-937	-863	-74	-8
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-680	-1 240	-915	-325	-26
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 608	-11 080	-11 336	256	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-166	-181	-183	2	1
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-218	-120	-165	45	38
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 037	-3 275	-3 484	209	6
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 045	-1 162	-1 155	-7	-1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-62	-63	-62	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 589	-1 638	-1 731	93	6
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-251	-263	-284	21	8
			Paper and paperboard	-197	-209	-208	-1	-
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-117	-126	-126	-	-
			Iron and steel	-261	-284	-285	1	-
			Plastics	-369	-376	-388	12	3
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 062	-3 246	-3 133	-113	-3
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-125	-28	-21	-7	-25
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-108	-108	-111	3	3
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-1 100	-727	-469	-258	-35
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

Consumption goods

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $65m (1%) to $8,935m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $334m (4%) to $9,170m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $157m (8%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $71m (5%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $51m (2%).

Capital goods

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $7m to $6,251m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $152m (2%) to $6,585m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $325m (26%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $74m (8%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $125m (6%)
• ADP equipment, up $86m (9%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $65m (18%).

Intermediate and other merchandise goods

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $77m (1%) to $11,041m.

In seasonally adjusted terms,imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $256m (2%) to $11,336m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $209m (6%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $93m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $113m (3%).


Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $15m (2%) to $759m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $258m (35%) to $469m.


Imports of services


Services debits

Services debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019	Oct 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 709	-8 728	-8 688	-40	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-173	-79	-89	10	13
	Transport		-1 539	-1 552	-1 582	30	2
		Passenger(c)	-654	-667	-671	4	1
		Freight	-793	-794	-818	24	3
		Other(b)	-82	-81	-84	3	4
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-10	-10	-9	-1	-10
	Travel		-4 339	-4 427	-4 368	-59	-1
	Other services		-2 658	-2 670	-2 649	-21	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 994	-5 094	-5 039	-55	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $15m to $8,698m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $40m to $8,688m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $59m (1%)
• other services, down $21m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls was transport, up $30m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $55m (1%) to $5,039m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Oct 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	20	-5	-11	15	-12	-
	Unit value	4	7	7	-12	-1	-1
Fines
	Quantity	12	-2	-5	5	-3	-3
	Unit value	6	7	7	-5	-6	-4
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	27	18	-18	-1	-4	-
	Unit value	2	-	p-5	-1	p-7	p-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	3	23	-20	-7	-4	-16
	Unit value	1	p-4	-4	1	p -	p-3
Thermal
	Quantity	-3	7	14	-16	-1	9
	Unit value	1	-4	-8	6	p-4	p-7
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-1	-3	13	2	-12	3
	Unit value	1	-5	5	7	4	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September to October 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $31m (1%), with unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $104m (36%), with quantities down 36% and unit values up 1%
• China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $48m (3%), with unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $53m (51%), with quantities up 67% and unit values down 10%
• Vietnam rose $42m, with unit values up 36%.

Iron ore fines, down $434m (7%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $490m (9%), with quantities down 4% and unit values down 5%
• Indonesia fell $45m (77%), with quantities down 73% and unit values down 15%
• the Republic of Korea rose $117m (40%), with quantities up 31% and unit values up 7%.

Hard coking coal, down $14m (1%), with unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) fell $188m (20%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 6%
• Japan fell $63m (22%), with quantities down 28% and unit values up 8%
• India rose $131m (28%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 4%
• Netherlands rose $69m (90%), with quantities up 60% and unit values up 19%.

Semi-soft coal, down $152m (19%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $115m (34%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 8%
• the Republic of Korea fell $42m (29%), with quantities down 25% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan fell $39m (52%), with quantities down 49% and unit values down 7%
• India rose $53m (47%), with quantities up 45% and unit values up 1%.

Thermal coal, up $27m (2%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 7%. Exports to:

• China (excludes SARs and Taiwan) rose $64m (28%), with quantities up 34% and unit values down 4%
• Malaysia rose $44m, with unit values down 6%
• Japan fell $71m (10%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 7%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $17m, with quantities up 3% and unit values down 3%.


Country breakdown

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2018-19. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2018-19, these restrictions represented 1.23% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2018-19, these restrictions represented 1.68% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26-28.