ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,565m in October 2016, a decrease of $154m (9%) on the deficit in September 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,541m in October 2016, an increase of $269m (21%) on the deficit in September 2016.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 861	-1 272	-1 541	-269	-21
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 836	27 242	27 631	389	1
		Total goods		20 773	21 151	21 418	267	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 459	3 591	3 441	-150	-4
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 402	16 001	16 224	223	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	47	47	44	-3	-6
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 865	1 512	1 710	198	13
		Total services		6 063	6 091	6 212	121	2
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 697	-28 514	-29 172	658	2
		Total goods		-22 148	-21 953	-22 477	524	2
			Consumption goods	-7 894	-7 670	-7 770	100	1
			Capital goods	-5 208	-5 156	-5 646	490	10
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 304	-8 509	-8 606	97	1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-742	-618	-456	-162	-26
		Total services		-6 549	-6 560	-6 695	135	2
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 891	-1 719	-1 565	154	9
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 920	27 171	27 399	228	1
		Total goods		20 850	21 047	21 232	185	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 451	3 480	3 498	18	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 526	15 742	15 955	213	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	46	47	47	-	-
			Non-monetary gold	1 827	1 779	1 733	-46	-3
		Total services		6 070	6 124	6 167	43	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 811	-28 890	-28 964	74	-
		Total goods		-22 249	-22 290	-22 328	38	-
			Consumption goods	-7 898	-7 837	-7 774	-63	-1
			Capital goods	-5 254	-5 335	-5 428	93	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 510	-8 527	-8 537	10	-
			Non-monetary gold	-587	-591	-589	-2	-
		Total services		-6 563	-6 601	-6 636	35	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $228m (1%) to $27,399m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $389m (1%) to $27,631m. Non-rural goods rose $223m (1%) and non-monetary gold rose $198m (13%). Rural goods fell $150m (4%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (6%). Services credits rose $121m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				20 773	21 151	21 418	267	1
	General merchandise			18 861	19 592	19 664	72	-
		Rural goods		3 459	3 591	3 441	-150	-4
			Meat and meat preparations	844	881	792	-89	-10
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	660	733	711	-22	-3
			Wool and sheepskins	283	310	288	-22	-7
			Other rural(a)	1 673	1 667	1 648	-19	-1
		Non-rural goods		15 402	16 001	16 224	223	1
			Metal ores and minerals	6 084	6 074	5 979	-95	-2
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 873	3 224	3 465	241	7
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 970	2 002	2 233	231	12
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	740	839	743	-96	-11
			Machinery	829	834	844	10	1
			Transport equipment	396	412	407	-5	-1
			Other manufactures	1 569	1 606	1 574	-32	-2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	812	888	844	-44	-5
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	129	122	134	12	10
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			47	47	44	-3	-6
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 865	1 512	1 710	198	13
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $18m (1%) to $3,498m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $150m (4%) to $3,441m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was meat and meat preparations, down $89m (10%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $213m (1%) to $15,955m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $223m (1%) to $16,224m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $241m (7%)
• other mineral fuels, up $231m (12%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $96m (11%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $95m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $47m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (6%) to $44m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $46m (3%) to $1,733m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $198m (13%) to $1,710m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			6 063	6 091	6 212	121	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		3	3	3	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		14	13	14	1	8
	Transport		576	568	589	21	4
		Passenger(b)	237	230	236	6	3
		Freight(c)	23	23	25	2	9
		Other	211	211	211	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	105	104	117	13	13
	Travel		3 678	3 698	3 713	15	-
	Other services		1 792	1 809	1 893	84	5
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		3 915	3 928	3 949	21	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $43m (1%) to $6,167m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $121m (2%) to $6,212m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $84m (5%)
• transport, up $21m (4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $21m (1%) to $3,949m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 22% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between September and October 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $74m to $28,964m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $658m (2%) to $29,172m. Capital goods rose $490m (10%), consumption goods rose $100m (1%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $97m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $162m (26%). Services debits rose $135m (2%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-22 148	-21 953	-22 477	524	2
	General merchandise			-21 406	-21 335	-22 021	686	3
		Consumption goods		-7 894	-7 670	-7 770	100	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 166	-1 148	-1 156	8	1
			Household electrical items	-471	-444	-450	6	1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 985	-1 810	-1 885	75	4
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 315	-1 291	-1 317	26	2
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-509	-511	-488	-23	-5
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 448	-2 465	-2 474	9	-
		Capital goods		-5 208	-5 156	-5 646	490	10
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 732	-1 611	-1 677	66	4
			ADP equipment	-732	-757	-749	-8	-1
			Telecommunications equipment	-971	-955	-960	5	1
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-246	-159	-250	91	57
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-792	-783	-1 077	294	38
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-734	-891	-933	42	5
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-8 304	-8 509	-8 606	97	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-143	-148	-144	-4	-3
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-151	-146	-136	-10	-7
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-1 843	-2 105	-2 128	23	1
			Parts for transport equipment	-965	-937	-942	5	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-61	-58	-57	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 207	-1 147	-1 170	23	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-335	-342	-319	-23	-7
			Paper and paperboard	-196	-197	-193	-4	-2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-119	-116	-116	-	-
			Iron and steel	-201	-185	-201	16	9
			Plastics	-324	-315	-311	-4	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 608	-2 658	-2 721	63	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-56	-56	-76	20	36
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-96	-96	-93	-3	-3
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-742	-618	-456	-162	-26
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $63m (1%) to $7,774m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $100m (1%) to $7,770m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $75m (4%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $26m (2%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $93m (2%) to $5,428m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $490m (10%) to $5,646m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $294m (38%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $91m (57%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $66m (4%)
• capital goods n.e.s., up $42m (5%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $10m to $8,537m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $97m (1%) to $8,606m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $63m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $2m to $589m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $162m (26%) to $456m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016	Oct 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-6 549	-6 560	-6 695	135	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-1	-	-1	-100
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-49	-85	-59	-26	-31
	Transport		-1 333	-1 294	-1 392	98	8
		Passenger(c)	-538	-531	-537	6	1
		Freight	-717	-686	-694	8	1
		Other(b)	-70	-70	-149	79	113
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-7	-11	4	57
	Travel		-2 864	-2 861	-2 864	3	-
	Other services		-2 303	-2 319	-2 380	61	3
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-3 402	-3 392	-3 402	10	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $35m (1%) to $6,636m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $135m (2%) to $6,695m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $98m (8%)
• other services, up $61m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $26m (31%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $10m to $3,402m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		May 2016	Jun 2016	Jul 2016	Aug 2016	Sep 2016	Oct 2016
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	14	-3	1	7	-4	3
	Unit value	2	-9	7	5	-2	-4
Fines
	Quantity	2	1	-5	9	-4	2
	Unit value	-	-9	5	5	-1	-3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	18	-6	-12	7	2	-12
	Unit value	6	3	p-6	p-1	p7	p12
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-5	9	-20	17	-4	1
	Unit value	7	1	-2	p-1	p4	p14
Thermal
	Quantity	3	4	8	-12	18	-16
	Unit value	7	-2	1	5	9	8
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-13	22	9	8	-1	5
	Unit value	-3	-1	3	7	4	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between September and October 2016 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $18m (1%), with quantities up 3% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $25m (34%), with quantities down 28% and unit values down 8%
• Japan fell $8m (4%), with quantities down 6% and unit values up 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $16m (2%), with quantities up 7% and unit values down 5%.

Iron ore fines, down $40m (1%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $40m (17%), with quantities down 12% and unit values down 6%
• Japan fell $33m (16%), with quantities down 14% and unit values down 2%
• Taiwan fell $20m (38%), with quantities down 30% and unit values down 11%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $56m (2%), with quantities up 5% and unit values down 3%.

Hard coking coal, down $22m (2%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 12%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $101m (39%), with quantities down 35% and unit values down 6%
• the Republic of Korea rose $43m (43%), with quantities up 12% and unit values up 27%
• Netherlands rose $36m (56%), with quantities up 51% and unit values up 3%.

Semi-soft coal, up $81m (16%), with quantities up 1% and unit values up 14%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $57m, with unit values up 7%
• Japan rose $30m (16%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 15%.

Thermal coal, down $136m (9%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $99m (15%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 5%
• Taiwan fell $29m (12%), with quantities down 17% and unit values up 6%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $118m (7%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 2%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the financial year 2015-16. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component, will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2015-16, these restrictions represented 2.39% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2015-16, these restrictions represented 1.78% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26-28.