ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,956m in May 2017, a decrease of $363m on the surplus in April 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,471m in May 2017, an increase of $2,381m on the surplus in April 2017.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	May 2017	May 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				2 419	90	2 471	2 381	2 646
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 652	30 203	32 781	2 578	9
		Total goods		26 471	23 897	26 391	2 494	10
			Rural goods(b)	4 081	4 033	4 151	118	3
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 517	18 364	20 697	2 333	13
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	28	27	27	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 845	1 473	1 515	42	3
		Total services		6 181	6 307	6 391	84	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-30 233	-30 113	-30 310	197	1
		Total goods		-24 038	-23 672	-23 840	168	1
			Consumption goods	-8 470	-8 283	-8 402	119	1
			Capital goods	-5 680	-5 900	-5 615	-285	-5
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 321	-9 074	-9 510	436	5
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-568	-415	-313	-102	-25
		Total services		-6 194	-6 441	-6 470	29	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				2 545	2 319	1 956	-363	-16
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 554	32 542	32 384	-158	-
		Total goods		26 338	26 269	26 059	-210	-1
			Rural goods(b)	4 073	4 103	4 111	8	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 735	20 614	20 365	-249	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	28	25	23	-2	-8
			Non-monetary gold	1 501	1 527	1 560	33	2
		Total services		6 215	6 273	6 325	52	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-30 008	-30 223	-30 428	205	1
		Total goods		-23 673	-23 839	-24 004	165	1
			Consumption goods	-8 262	-8 317	-8 365	48	1
			Capital goods	-5 815	-5 863	-5 931	68	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 128	-9 216	-9 296	80	1
			Non-monetary gold	-468	-443	-412	-31	-7
		Total services		-6 335	-6 384	-6 424	40	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $158m to $32,384m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $2,578m (9%) to $32,781m. Non-rural goods rose $2,333m (13%), rural goods rose $118m (3%), non-monetary gold rose $42m (3%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $27m. Services credits rose $84m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	May 2017	May 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				26 471	23 897	26 391	2 494	10
	General merchandise			24 598	22 397	24 849	2 452	11
		Rural goods		4 081	4 033	4 151	118	3
			Meat and meat preparations	936	931	980	49	5
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	825	776	892	116	15
			Wool and sheepskins	323	389	313	-76	-20
			Other rural(a)	1 998	1 937	1 967	30	2
		Non-rural goods		20 517	18 364	20 697	2 333	13
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	8 472	8 029	7 466	-563	-7
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	4 887	3 114	5 035	1 921	62
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	2 535	2 363	3 286	923	39
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	855	933	1 007	74	8
			Machinery	814	809	830	21	3
			Transport equipment	395	415	396	-19	-5
			Other manufactures	1 619	1 590	1 664	74	5
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	794	981	872	-109	-11
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	145	130	140	10	8
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			28	27	27	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 845	1 473	1 515	42	3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $8m to $4,111m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $118m (3%) to $4,151m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $116m (15%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $49m (5%)
• other rural, up $30m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was wool and sheepskins, down $76m (20%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $249m (1%) to $20,365m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $2,333m (13%) to $20,697m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $1,921m (62%)
• other mineral fuels, up $923m (39%).

Partly offsetting these rises was metal ores and minerals, down $563m (7%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (8%) to $23m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $27m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $33m (2%) to $1,560m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $42m (3%) to $1,515m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	May 2017	May 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			6 181	6 307	6 391	84	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	2	2	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		2	4	4	-	-
	Transport		614	628	640	12	2
		Passenger(b)	225	231	242	11	5
		Freight(c)	25	23	23	-	-
		Other	243	245	247	2	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	120	128	128	-	-
	Travel		3 907	4 014	4 076	62	2
	Other services		1 656	1 658	1 669	11	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 132	4 245	4 318	73	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $52m (1%) to $6,325m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $84m (1%) to $6,391m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $62m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $73m (2%) to $4,318m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 19% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $205m (1%) to $30,428m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $197m (1%) to $30,310m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $436m (5%) and consumption goods rose $119m (1%). Capital goods fell $285m (5%) and non-monetary gold fell $102m (25%). Services debits rose $29m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	May 2017	May 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-24 038	-23 672	-23 840	168	1
	General merchandise			-23 470	-23 257	-23 527	270	1
		Consumption goods		-8 470	-8 283	-8 402	119	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 251	-1 215	-1 083	-132	-11
			Household electrical items	-561	-554	-551	-3	-1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 056	-1 871	-2 270	399	21
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 483	-1 515	-1 519	4	-
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-548	-576	-548	-28	-5
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 572	-2 552	-2 432	-120	-5
		Capital goods		-5 680	-5 900	-5 615	-285	-5
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 629	-1 689	-1 748	59	3
			ADP equipment	-789	-776	-839	63	8
			Telecommunications equipment	-909	-1 045	-576	-469	-45
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-170	-248	-117	-131	-53
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-922	-857	-789	-68	-8
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-1 261	-1 284	-1 545	261	20
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 321	-9 074	-9 510	436	5
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-158	-145	-156	11	8
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-130	-228	-205	-23	-10
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 751	-2 179	-2 555	376	17
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 023	-1 039	-1 052	13	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-51	-56	-65	9	16
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 192	-1 240	-1 296	56	5
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-404	-400	-374	-26	-7
			Paper and paperboard	-196	-197	-203	6	3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-126	-125	-127	2	2
			Iron and steel	-235	-237	-255	18	8
			Plastics	-367	-355	-358	3	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 551	-2 739	-2 715	-24	-1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-31	-29	-46	17	59
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-105	-104	-104	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-568	-415	-313	-102	-25
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $48m (1%) to $8,365m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $119m (1%) to $8,402m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $399m (21%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $132m (11%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $120m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $68m (1%) to $5,931m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $285m (5%) to $5,615m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• telecommunications equipment, down $469m (45%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $131m (53%).

Partly offsetting these falls was capital goods n.e.s., up $261m (20%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $80m (1%) to $9,296m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $436m (5%) to $9,510m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $376m (17%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $56m (5%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $31m (7%) to $412m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $102m (25%) to $313m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	May 2017	May 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-6 194	-6 441	-6 470	29	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-73	-72	-66	-6	-8
	Transport		-1 358	-1 392	-1 369	-23	-2
		Passenger(c)	-576	-583	-590	7	1
		Freight	-709	-737	-707	-30	-4
		Other(b)	-67	-66	-66	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-5	-6	-6	-	-
	Travel		-2 711	-2 912	-2 954	42	1
	Other services		-2 053	-2 065	-2 081	16	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-3 287	-3 495	-3 544	49	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $40m (1%) to $6,424m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $29m to $6,470m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $42m (1%)
• other services, up $16m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was transport, down $23m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $49m (1%) to $3,544m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Dec 2016	Jan 2017	Feb 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	6	-22	15	3	4	3
	Unit value	9	-1	-	2	-6	-13
Fines
	Quantity	8	-14	-8	15	-	5
	Unit value	15	1	4	5	-11	-5
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	15	-15	-10	8	-64	180
	Unit value	9	-8	-9	p-13	p1	p3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	11	-37	21	-6	-32	58
	Unit value	4	-	2	p-7	p8	p-1
Thermal
	Quantity	23	-16	-9	13	-5	2
	Unit value	5	-5	-4	p-	1	3
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-	3	-10	6	-8	29
	Unit value	3	5	-2	-2	6	-5
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April and May 2017 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $160m (11%), with quantities up 3% and unit values down 13%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $117m (10%), with quantities up 6% and unit values down 16%
• Japan fell $47m (18%), with quantities down 15% and unit values down 3%.

Iron ore fines, down $31m (1%), with quantities up 5% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $73m (24%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 3%
• Taiwan fell $41m (45%), with quantities down 29% and unit values down 23%
• Indonesia fell $32m (81%), with quantities down 73% and unit values down 32%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $104m (3%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 5%.

Hard coking coal, up $1,467m, with unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $463m, with unit values up 3%
• Japan rose $319m, with unit values up 3%
• the Republic of Korea rose $160m, with unit values up 11%
• India rose $125m (34%), with quantities up 20% and unit values up 12%
• Taiwan rose $108m, with unit values up 7%.

Semi-soft coal, up $345m (56%), with quantities up 58% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $207m, with unit values down 6%
• the Republic of Korea rose $129m, with unit values up 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $69m, with unit values up 13%
• Taiwan rose $28m (49%), with quantities up 57% and unit values down 5%
• India fell $106m (55%), with quantities down 50% and unit values down 11%.

Thermal coal, up $84m (5%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $262m (44%), with quantities up 45% and unit values down 1%
• Taiwan fell $79m (34%), with quantities down $36m and unit values up 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $60m (16%), with quantities down 18% and unit values up 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $35m (14%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 2%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $416m (23%), with quantities up 29% and unit values down 5%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the calendar year 2016. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.


Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2016, these restrictions represented 2.34% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2016, these restrictions represented 0.96% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26 to 28.