ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,112m in March 2018, an increase of $317m on the surplus in February 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,527m in March 2018, an increase of $178m on the surplus in February 2018.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2018 was a surplus of $4,035m, a turnaround of $5,352m on the deficit of $1,317m for the three months to December 2017. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2018 surplus was $4,033m, a turnaround of $5,059m on the December quarter 2017 deficit of $1,026m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				1 159	1 349	1 527	178	13
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			34 114	34 352	34 840	488	1
		Total goods		27 093	27 195	27 642	447	2
			Rural goods(b)	3 356	3 832	3 958	126	3
			Non-rural goods(b)	21 532	21 663	21 854	191	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	7	7	6	-1	-14
			Non-monetary gold(c)	2 198	1 693	1 824	131	8
		Total services		7 021	7 157	7 198	41	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-32 955	-33 004	-33 314	310	1
		Total goods		-25 543	-25 562	-25 916	354	1
			Consumption goods	-8 359	-8 921	-8 723	-198	-2
			Capital goods	-6 168	-6 187	-6 126	-61	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 606	-9 974	-10 355	381	4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-410	-480	-712	232	48
		Total services		-7 412	-7 441	-7 397	-44	-1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				476	795	1 112	317	40
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			33 516	34 095	34 589	494	1
		Total goods		26 433	26 990	27 459	469	2
			Rural goods(b)	3 717	3 713	3 732	19	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 946	21 454	21 878	424	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	9	7	5	-2	-29
			Non-monetary gold	1 762	1 816	1 844	28	2
		Total services		7 083	7 105	7 130	25	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-33 040	-33 300	-33 476	176	1
		Total goods		-25 539	-25 818	-26 011	193	1
			Consumption goods	-8 706	-8 772	-8 807	35	-
			Capital goods	-6 087	-6 140	-6 186	46	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 275	-10 384	-10 444	60	1
			Non-monetary gold	-472	-522	-575	53	10
		Total services		-7 501	-7 482	-7 465	-17	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $494m (1%) to $34,589m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $488m (1%) to $34,840m. Non-rural goods rose $191m (1%), non-monetary gold rose $131m (8%) and rural goods rose $126m (3%). Net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (14%). Services credits rose $41m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				27 093	27 195	27 642	447	2
	General merchandise			24 888	25 495	25 812	317	1
		Rural goods		3 356	3 832	3 958	126	3
			Meat and meat preparations	1 027	1 047	1 045	-2	-
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	576	509	735	226	44
			Wool and sheepskins	304	380	375	-5	-1
			Other rural(a)	1 449	1 896	1 804	-92	-5
		Non-rural goods		21 532	21 663	21 854	191	1
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 639	7 887	7 901	14	-
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 250	5 453	5 424	-29	-1
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	3 460	3 603	3 661	58	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	995	976	925	-51	-5
			Machinery	867	806	874	68	8
			Transport equipment	472	300	312	12	4
			Other manufactures	1 774	1 623	1 720	97	6
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	920	873	874	1	-
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	155	141	163	22	16
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			7	7	6	-1	-14
	Non-monetary gold(e)			2 198	1 693	1 824	131	8
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $19m (1%) to $3,732m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $126m (3%) to $3,958m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $226m (44%).

Partly offsetting this rise was other rural, down $92m (5%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $424m (2%) to $21,878m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $191m (1%) to $21,854m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other manufactures, up $97m (6%)
• machinery, up $68m (8%)
• other mineral fuels, up $58m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $51m (5%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (29%) to $5m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (14%) to $6m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $28m (2%) to $1,844m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $131m (8%) to $1,824m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 021	7 157	7 198	41	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		5	-	1	1	100
	Transport		651	663	668	5	1
		Passenger(b)	247	256	258	2	1
		Freight(c)	25	25	25	-	-
		Other	233	234	235	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	146	149	150	1	1
	Travel		4 412	4 527	4 564	37	1
	Other services		1 953	1 966	1 964	-2	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 659	4 783	4 823	40	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $25m to $7,130m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $41m (1%) to $7,198m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $37m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $40m (1%) to $4,823m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 21% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $176m (1%) to $33,476m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $310m (1%) to $33,314m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $381m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $232m (48%). Consumption goods fell $198m (2%) and capital goods fell $61m (1%). Services debits fell $44m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-25 543	-25 562	-25 916	354	1
	General merchandise			-25 133	-25 082	-25 204	122	-
		Consumption goods		-8 359	-8 921	-8 723	-198	-2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 227	-1 269	-1 232	-37	-3
			Household electrical items	-541	-546	-519	-27	-5
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 942	-2 350	-2 225	-125	-5
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 382	-1 467	-1 519	52	4
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-569	-557	-554	-3	-1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 697	-2 733	-2 674	-59	-2
		Capital goods		-6 168	-6 187	-6 126	-61	-1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 940	-2 194	-2 110	-84	-4
			ADP equipment	-832	-881	-859	-22	-2
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 038	-920	-1 061	141	15
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-696	-559	-364	-195	-35
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-975	-1 092	-1 148	56	5
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-687	-540	-583	43	8
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 606	-9 974	-10 355	381	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-138	-155	-153	-2	-1
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-271	-189	-148	-41	-22
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 161	-2 559	-2 975	416	16
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 055	-998	-1 011	13	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-66	-62	-68	6	10
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 474	-1 515	-1 489	-26	-2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-291	-333	-297	-36	-11
			Paper and paperboard	-197	-200	-196	-4	-2
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-121	-127	-124	-3	-2
			Iron and steel	-309	-369	-350	-19	-5
			Plastics	-370	-371	-368	-3	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 926	-2 957	-3 039	82	3
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-129	-41	-38	-3	-7
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-99	-99	-99	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-410	-480	-712	232	48
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $35m to $8,807m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $198m (2%) to $8,723m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $125m (5%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $59m (2%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $37m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $46m (1%) to $6,186m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $61m (1%) to $6,126m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $195m (35%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $84m (4%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $141m (15%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $56m (5%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $60m (1%) to $10,444m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $381m (4%) to $10,355m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $416m (16%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $53m (10%) to $575m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $232m (48%) to $712m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018	Mar 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 412	-7 441	-7 397	-44	-1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-34	-46	-47	1	2
	Transport		-1 443	-1 467	-1 445	-22	-1
		Passenger(c)	-568	-551	-541	-10	-2
		Freight	-799	-839	-827	-12	-1
		Other(b)	-66	-66	-65	-1	-2
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-11	-11	-11	-	-
	Travel		-3 684	-3 666	-3 623	-43	-1
	Other services		-2 250	-2 262	-2 282	20	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 252	-4 217	-4 164	-53	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $17m to $7,465m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $44m (1%) to $7,397m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $43m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $53m (1%) to $4,164m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2017	Nov 2017	Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-6	-	13	-17	-2	8
	Unit value	-9	-6	1	-	8	1
Fines
	Quantity	-2	-3	15	-17	-3	9
	Unit value	-13	5	7	6	4	-2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-19	3	15	2	-21	11
	Unit value	4	p-3	1	10	p-17	p5
Semi-soft
	Quantity	2	-13	35	-15	-11	-1
	Unit value	2	-	6	-2	p3	p3
Thermal
	Quantity	-2	-4	12	-8	-8	7
	Unit value	5	4	-1	-2	p4	p1
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	18	5	2	8	-4	-
	Unit value	-1	5	4	2	4	3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $121m (9%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $57m (5%), with quantities up 4% and unit values up 1%
• Taiwan rose $24m (61%), with quantities up 58% and unit values up 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $22m (50%), with quantities up 47% and unit values up 2%
• Netherlands rose $18m, following no exports in February 2018.

Iron ore fines, up $274m (8%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $316m (11%), with quantities up 14% and unit values down 3%
• India fell $57m, with no exports in March 2018.

Hard coking coal, up $269m (16%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 5%. Exports to:

• India rose $156m (35%), with quantities up 34% and unit values up 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $77m (31%), with quantities up 17% and unit values up 12%
• Japan rose $62m (19%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 10%.

Semi-soft coal, up $13m (2%), with quantities down 1% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• India rose $57m (38%), with quantities up 38%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $18m (25%), with quantities up 16% and unit values up 8%
• the Republic of Korea fell $50m (28%), with quantities down 30% and unit values up 2%.

Thermal coal, up $145m (8%), with quantities up 7% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Taiwan rose $115m (91%), with quantities up 96% and unit values down 2%
• Japan rose $51m (6%), with quantities up 4% and unit values up 2%
• India rose $39m, with unit values up 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $50m (11%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $78m (3%), with unit values up 3%.