ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,836m in March 2016, a decrease of $250m (8%) on the deficit in February 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,163m in March 2016, a decrease of $881m (29%) on the deficit in February 2016.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2016 was a deficit of $8,477m, a decrease of $2,312m (21%) on the deficit of $10,789m for the three months to December 2015. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2016 deficit was $8,060m, a decrease of $2,944m (27%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $11,004m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-3 270	-3 044	-2 163	881	29
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 521	25 445	26 529	1 084	4
		Total goods		19 471	19 339	20 268	929	5
			Rural goods(b)	3 644	3 406	3 321	-85	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	14 368	14 763	15 119	356	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	40	40	39	-1	-3
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 420	1 130	1 789	659	58
		Total services		6 050	6 106	6 261	155	3
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 791	-28 489	-28 692	203	1
		Total goods		-22 080	-21 920	-22 009	89	-
			Consumption goods	-7 879	-8 139	-7 962	-177	-2
			Capital goods	-5 176	-5 048	-5 142	94	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 676	-8 361	-8 411	50	1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-349	-372	-494	122	33
		Total services		-6 711	-6 569	-6 683	114	2
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-3 316	-3 086	-2 836	250	8
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 638	25 615	25 628	13	-
		Total goods		19 598	19 479	19 415	-64	-
			Rural goods(b)	3 547	3 485	3 427	-58	-2
			Non-rural goods(b)	14 677	14 565	14 506	-59	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	42	41	41	-	-
			Non-monetary gold	1 333	1 387	1 442	55	4
		Total services		6 040	6 136	6 213	77	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 955	-28 700	-28 465	-235	-1
		Total goods		-22 281	-22 017	-21 783	-234	-1
			Consumption goods	-7 978	-7 970	-7 964	-6	-
			Capital goods	-5 231	-5 130	-5 032	-98	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 693	-8 526	-8 386	-140	-2
			Non-monetary gold	-380	-391	-400	9	2
		Total services		-6 673	-6 684	-6 682	-2	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $13m to $25,628m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,084m (4%) to $26,529m. Non-monetary gold rose $659m (58%) and non-rural goods rose $356m (2%). Rural goods fell $85m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%). Services credits rose $155m (3%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				19 471	19 339	20 268	929	5
	General merchandise			18 011	18 169	18 440	271	1
		Rural goods		3 644	3 406	3 321	-85	-2
			Meat and meat preparations	1 009	961	954	-7	-1
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	661	584	548	-36	-6
			Wool and sheepskins	274	274	274	-	-
			Other rural(a)	1 700	1 587	1 544	-43	-3
		Non-rural goods		14 368	14 763	15 119	356	2
			Metal ores and minerals	4 844	5 376	5 785	409	8
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 798	2 666	2 743	77	3
			Other mineral fuels(c)	2 018	1 932	1 977	45	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	749	850	795	-55	-6
			Machinery	924	871	840	-31	-4
			Transport equipment	437	475	452	-23	-5
			Other manufactures	1 694	1 566	1 531	-35	-2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	785	910	875	-35	-4
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	119	117	121	4	3
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			40	40	39	-1	-3
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 420	1 130	1 789	659	58
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $58m (2%) to $3,427m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $85m (2%) to $3,321m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $43m (3%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $36m (6%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $59m to $14,506m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $356m (2%) to $15,119m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $409m (8%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $77m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $55m (6%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), down $35m (4%)
• other manufactures, down $35m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $41m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $39m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $55m (4%) to $1,442m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $659m (58%) to $1,789m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			6 050	6 106	6 261	155	3
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	3	2	-1	-33
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		3	3	2	-1	-33
	Transport		589	597	601	4	1
		Passenger(b)	246	254	259	5	2
		Freight(c)	26	25	24	-1	-4
		Other	226	227	228	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	91	91	91	-	-
	Travel		3 633	3 671	3 806	135	4
	Other services		1 822	1 832	1 849	17	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 880	3 926	4 065	139	4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $77m (1%) to $6,213m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $155m (3%) to $6,261m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $135m (4%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $139m (4%) to $4,065m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 24% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $235m (1%) to $28,465m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $203m (1%) to $28,692m. Non-monetary gold rose $122m (33%), capital goods rose $94m (2%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $50m (1%). Consumption goods fell $177m (2%). Services debits rose $114m (2%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-22 080	-21 920	-22 009	89	-
	General merchandise			-21 731	-21 548	-21 515	-33	-
		Consumption goods		-7 879	-8 139	-7 962	-177	-2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 138	-1 230	-1 157	-73	-6
			Household electrical items	-488	-529	-507	-22	-4
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 898	-1 906	-1 957	51	3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 374	-1 433	-1 371	-62	-4
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-512	-506	-515	9	2
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 469	-2 534	-2 455	-79	-3
		Capital goods		-5 176	-5 048	-5 142	94	2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 065	-1 721	-1 576	-145	-8
			ADP equipment	-754	-699	-698	-1	-
			Telecommunications equipment	-892	-940	-911	-29	-3
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-186	-259	-230	-29	-11
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-814	-890	-854	-36	-4
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-466	-540	-873	333	62
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-8 676	-8 361	-8 411	50	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-148	-144	-149	5	3
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-164	-162	-207	45	28
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-1 873	-1 430	-1 716	286	20
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 051	-1 093	-989	-104	-10
			Parts for ADP equipment	-58	-51	-51	-	-
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 206	-1 304	-1 183	-121	-9
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-375	-355	-329	-26	-7
			Paper and paperboard	-208	-217	-174	-43	-20
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-123	-129	-124	-5	-4
			Iron and steel	-260	-269	-239	-30	-11
			Plastics	-341	-341	-322	-19	-6
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 737	-2 736	-2 766	30	1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-30	-25	-57	32	128
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-104	-104	-104	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-349	-372	-494	122	33
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $6m to $7,964m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $177m (2%) to $7,962m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $79m (3%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $73m (6%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $62m (4%).

Partly offsetting these falls was non-industrial transport equipment, up $51m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $98m (2%) to $5,032m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $94m (2%) to $5,142m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., up $333m (62%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $145m (8%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $36m (4%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $29m (11%)
• telecommunications equipment, down $29m (3%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $140m (2%) to $8,386m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $50m (1%) to $8,411m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $286m (20%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $45m (28%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $121m (9%)
• parts for transport equipment, down $104m (10%)
• paper and paperboard, down $43m (20%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $9m (2%) to $400m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $122m (33%) to $494m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016	Mar 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 711	-6 569	-6 683	114	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-37	-42	-70	28	67
	Transport		-1 460	-1 375	-1 373	-2	-
		Passenger(c)	-516	-526	-528	2	-
		Freight	-869	-774	-768	-6	-1
		Other(b)	-68	-68	-70	2	3
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-6	-7	1	17
	Travel		-2 796	-2 722	-2 804	82	3
	Other services		-2 419	-2 430	-2 436	6	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 312	-3 249	-3 332	83	3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $2m to $6,682m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $114m (2%) to $6,683m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $82m (3%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $28m (67%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $83m (3%) to $3,332m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	11	-9	4	-17	15	-
	Unit value	-9	-12	-12	7	9	9
Fines
	Quantity	-7	-	4	-14	8	9
	Unit value	-4	-10	-13	3	7	13
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-4	4	-5	3	-17	13
	Unit value	-8	-1	-4	p5	p3	p-7
Semi-soft
	Quantity	4	-2	-1	-	-26	53
	Unit value	-4	-1	-3	p4	p-1	p-5
Thermal
	Quantity	5	-4	10	-10	-3	3
	Unit value	-4	-3	-3	-1	-	-6
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	17	-2	11	-2	3	12
	Unit value	-5	-2	-6	-1	-5	-6
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2016 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $88m (10%), with unit values up 9%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $73m (11%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 9%.

Iron ore fines, up $608m (24%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 13%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $514m (24%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 14%
• Japan rose $65m (37%), with quantities up 30% and unit values up 5%.

Hard coking coal, up $43m (5%), with quantities up 13% and unit values down 7%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $104m (57%), with quantities up 62% and unit values down 3%
• India fell $23m (8%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 10%
• Netherlands fell $20m (37%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 8%.

Semi-soft coal, up $182m (45%), with quantities up 53% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan), rose $52m, with unit values down 6%
• India rose $37m (55%), with quantities up 56%
• the Republic of Korea rose $37m (38%), with quantities up 52% and unit values down 9%
• Japan rose $30m (21%), with quantities up 29% and unit values down 6%
• Brazil rose $30m, with unit values up 2%.

Thermal coal, down $36m (3%), with quantities up 3% and unit values down 6%. Exports to:

• India fell $24m (62%), with quantities down 57% and unit values down 12%
• Japan fell $23m (5%), with unit values down 5%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $86m (6%), with quantities up 12% and unit values down 6%.