ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,239m in March 2012, a rise of $467m on the deficit in February 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,587m in March 2012, a rise of $833m on the deficit in February 2012.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2012 was a deficit of $3,184m, a turnaround of $6,299m on the surplus of $3,115m for the three months to December 2011. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the March quarter 2012 deficit was $3,029m, a turnaround of $5,756m on the revised December quarter 2011 surplus of $2,727m. The main goods components contributing to this quarter-on-quarter result were:

• Goods credits
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $2,541m (19%). In original terms, on a recorded trade basis, coal, not agglomerated, fell $2,601m (19%) with quantities down 9% and unit prices down 12%
  • metal ores and minerals, down $2,458m (11%). In original terms, on a recorded trade basis, iron ore and concentrates, fell $3,062m (19%) with quantities down 11% and unit prices down 9%.
• Goods debits
  • civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $875m (43%)
  • non-monetary gold, down $569m (27%)
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $472m (12%).

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2012 and March 2012 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $486m (2%) to $24,492m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $392m (2%) to $24,521m. Rural goods rose $199m (8%) and non-monetary gold rose $75m (6%). Non-rural goods fell $38m. Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $30m. Services credits rose $156m (4%).


Exports of goods


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $64m (2%) to $2,665m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $199m (8%) to $2,725m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $166m (16%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $400m (2%) to $16,396m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $38m to $16,264m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $202m (6%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $106m (2%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), down $89m (10%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• other mineral fuels, up $189m (9%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $141m (17%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $33m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $30m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $21m (2%) to $1,251m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $75m (6%) to $1,296m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $1m to $4,147m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $156m (4%) to $4,206m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $154m (6%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $154m (6%) to $2,809m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2012 and March 2012 the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $18m to $25,732m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,224m (5%) to $26,107m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $804m (9%), consumption goods rose $317m (6%) and capital goods rose $65m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $90m (17%). Services debits rose $128m (2%).

Preliminary analysis shows that in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes fell 1.6% and the implicit price deflator fell 1.5% during the March quarter 2012. In original terms, the chain Laspeyres price index fell 1.2% and the implicit price deflator fell 0.4%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2012 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $21m to $5,572m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $317m (6%) to $5,630m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $325m (20%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $114m (19%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the non-industrial transport equipment component, down $129m (8%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $70m (1%) to $5,426m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $65m (1%) to $5,377m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $42m (2%)
• ADP equipment, up $41m (7%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $35m to $9,061m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $804m (9%) to $9,394m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $738m (24%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $44m (9%) to $467m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $90m (17%) to $446m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $40m (1%) to $5,205m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $128m (2%) to $5,260m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $66m (5%)
• travel, up $38m (2%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $21m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $43m (2%) to $2,895m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2011	Nov 2011	Dec 2011	Jan 2012	Feb 2012	Mar 2012
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	-7	23	-28	16	-1
	Unit value	-6	-13	-2	-4	-2	1
Fines
	Quantity	4	-9	12	-21	17	-8
	Unit value	-6	-14	-5	-2	-	4
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-2	-3	15	1	-26	-4
	Unit value	-3	-2	-5	-10	-4	2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-8	8	-	-5	4	3
	Unit value	4	-5	-8	-5	-12	8
Thermal
	Quantity	5	-7	24	-13	-15	5
	Unit value	5	1	-1	-2	-4	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On a recorded trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2012 large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:

Iron ore lump rose $5m with quantities down 1% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $53m (24%), with quantities up 21% and unit values up 2%
• China fell $38m (5%), with quantities down 4%.

Iron ore fines fell $143m (4%) with quantities down 8% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• Republic of Korea fell $153m (31%), with quantities down 32% and unit values up 1%
• Japan fell $39m (8%), with quantities down 9% and unit values up 1%
• China rose $88m (4%), with quantities down 1% and unit values up 5%.

Hard coking coal fell $31m (2%) with quantities down 4% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• United Kingdom fell $139m (100%), driven by volumes
• Japan rose $102m (50%), with quantities up 49% and prices up 1%.

Semi-soft coal rose $70m (11%) with quantities up 3% and unit values up 8%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $147m (114%), with quantities up 93% and unit values up 11%
• China fell $86m (36%), with quantities down 32% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal rose $73m (6%) with quantities up 5% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China rose $106m (103%), with quantities up 85% and unit values up 10%
• Taiwan rose $72m (82%), with quantities up 79% and unit values up 2%
• Republic of Korea fell $89m (37%), with quantities down 39% and unit values up 3%.