ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,428m in June 2018, an increase of $186m on the surplus in May 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,873m in June 2018, an increase of $1,148m on the surplus in May 2018.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2018 was a surplus of $3,192m, a decrease of $165m on the surplus of $3,357m for the three months to March 2018. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2018 surplus was $2,860m, a decrease of $490m on the March quarter 2018 surplus of $3,350m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				594	725	1 873	1 148	158
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			34 244	35 525	36 439	914	3
		Total goods		27 024	28 226	29 055	829	3
			Rural goods(b)	4 012	3 978	4 159	181	5
			Non-rural goods(b)	21 478	22 373	22 915	542	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	4	4	4	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 530	1 872	1 976	104	6
		Total services		7 220	7 298	7 385	87	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-33 650	-34 800	-34 567	-233	-1
		Total goods		-25 974	-27 155	-26 944	-211	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 465	-8 970	-8 956	-14	-
			Capital goods	-6 274	-6 294	-6 607	313	5
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 628	-11 142	-10 742	-400	-4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-608	-750	-638	-112	-15
		Total services		-7 676	-7 645	-7 623	-22	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				1 062	1 242	1 428	186	15
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			35 144	35 549	35 855	306	1
		Total goods		27 906	28 259	28 519	260	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 965	4 050	4 120	70	2
			Non-rural goods(b)	22 139	22 379	22 550	171	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	2	2	3	1	50
			Non-monetary gold	1 800	1 828	1 846	18	1
		Total services		7 239	7 290	7 336	46	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 082	-34 308	-34 427	119	-
		Total goods		-26 370	-26 625	-26 790	165	1
			Consumption goods	-8 768	-8 809	-8 843	34	-
			Capital goods	-6 301	-6 369	-6 415	46	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 658	-10 764	-10 828	64	1
			Non-monetary gold	-644	-683	-703	20	3
		Total services		-7 712	-7 683	-7 638	-45	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $306m (1%) to $35,855m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $914m (3%) to $36,439m. Non-rural goods rose $542m (2%), rural goods rose $181m (5%) and non-monetary gold rose $104m (6%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $4m. Services credits rose $87m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				27 024	28 226	29 055	829	3
	General merchandise			25 490	26 350	27 075	725	3
		Rural goods		4 012	3 978	4 159	181	5
			Meat and meat preparations	1 100	1 140	1 168	28	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	654	673	740	67	10
			Wool and sheepskins	365	400	389	-11	-3
			Other rural(a)	1 893	1 764	1 862	98	6
		Non-rural goods		21 478	22 373	22 915	542	2
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 599	7 926	8 044	118	1
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 161	5 376	5 400	24	-
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	3 777	4 178	4 232	54	1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	963	907	973	66	7
			Machinery	886	909	895	-14	-2
			Transport equipment	351	318	370	52	16
			Other manufactures	1 753	1 791	1 900	109	6
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	828	805	922	117	15
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	162	163	180	17	10
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			4	4	4	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 530	1 872	1 976	104	6
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $70m (2%) to $4,120m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $181m (5%) to $4,159m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $98m (6%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $67m (10%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $28m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was wool and sheepskins, down $11m (3%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $171m (1%) to $22,550m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $542m (2%) to $22,915m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $118m (1%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $117m (15%)
• other manufactures, up $109m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (50%) to $3m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $4m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $18m (1%) to $1,846m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $104m (6%) to $1,976m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 220	7 298	7 385	87	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		2	4	4	-	-
	Transport		603	608	607	-1	-
		Passenger(b)	241	245	242	-3	-1
		Freight(c)	24	24	25	1	4
		Other	219	218	218	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	119	121	122	1	1
	Travel		4 644	4 708	4 798	90	2
	Other services		1 970	1 979	1 976	-3	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 885	4 953	5 040	87	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $46m (1%) to $7,336m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $87m (1%) to $7,385m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $90m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $87m (2%) to $5,040m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $119m to $34,427m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $233m (1%) to $34,567m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $400m (4%), non-monetary gold fell $112m (15%) and consumption goods fell $14m. Capital goods rose $313m (5%). Services debits fell $22m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-25 974	-27 155	-26 944	-211	-1
	General merchandise			-25 366	-26 405	-26 306	-99	-
		Consumption goods		-8 465	-8 970	-8 956	-14	-
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 203	-1 290	-1 319	29	2
			Household electrical items	-517	-540	-543	3	1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 035	-2 083	-2 015	-68	-3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 520	-1 628	-1 661	33	2
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-587	-616	-613	-3	-
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 603	-2 813	-2 807	-6	-
		Capital goods		-6 274	-6 294	-6 607	313	5
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 049	-2 060	-2 059	-1	-
			ADP equipment	-1 009	-916	-975	59	6
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 006	-1 088	-1 095	7	1
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-480	-432	-488	56	13
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 176	-1 175	-1 282	107	9
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-553	-623	-708	85	14
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 628	-11 142	-10 742	-400	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-136	-153	-191	38	25
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-249	-114	-235	121	106
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 213	-3 397	-3 031	-366	-11
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 014	-1 142	-1 080	-62	-5
			Parts for ADP equipment	-54	-57	-49	-8	-14
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 540	-1 574	-1 563	-11	-1
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-282	-310	-293	-17	-5
			Paper and paperboard	-201	-202	-210	8	4
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-119	-132	-133	1	1
			Iron and steel	-368	-353	-332	-21	-6
			Plastics	-356	-411	-398	-13	-3
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 956	-3 140	-3 085	-55	-2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-23	-41	-25	-16	-39
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-116	-116	-116	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-608	-750	-638	-112	-15
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $34m to $8,843m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $14m to $8,956m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $68m (3%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $33m (2%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $29m (2%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $46m (1%) to $6,415m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $313m (5%) to $6,607m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $107m (9%)
• capital goods n.e.s., up $85m (14%)
• ADP equipment, up $59m (6%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $64m (1%) to $10,828m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $400m (4%) to $10,742m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $366m (11%)
• parts for transport equipment, down $62m (5%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $55m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $20m (3%) to $703m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $112m (15%) to $638m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018	Jun 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 676	-7 645	-7 623	-22	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-57	-32	-60	28	88
	Transport		-1 461	-1 499	-1 461	-38	-3
		Passenger(c)	-579	-562	-552	-10	-2
		Freight	-800	-854	-827	-27	-3
		Other(b)	-70	-70	-69	-1	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-13	-13	-13	-	-
	Travel		-3 815	-3 765	-3 728	-37	-1
	Other services		-2 343	-2 349	-2 374	25	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 394	-4 326	-4 280	-46	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $45m (1%) to $7,638m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $22m to $7,623m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $38m (3%)
• travel, down $37m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $28m (88%)
• other services, up $25m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $46m (1%) to $4,280m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	Jun 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-16	-2	10	2	3	-1
	Unit value	1	8	-3	-5	-1	2
Fines
	Quantity	-17	-3	9	6	4	-2
	Unit value	7	3	-4	-6	-1	-1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-1	-16	9	-10	24	2
	Unit value	10	p4	1	p-6	p-3	p-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-12	-13	2	-15	17	16
	Unit value	-1	8	6	2	p1	p-4
Thermal
	Quantity	-8	-8	7	7	-7	12
	Unit value	-1	4	1	-4	p3	p-
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	6	-7	3	-2	-7	15
	Unit value	5	8	1	3	4	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $5m, with quantities down 1% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $11m (1%), with quantities down 1% and unit values up 2%
• Vietnam rose $11m (66%), with quantities up 56% and unit values up 7%
• Singapore rose $7m, following no exports in May 2018
• the Republic of Korea fell $20m (24%), with quantities down 25% and unit values up 2%.

Iron ore fines, down $117m (3%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $46m (19%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 2%
• India fell $31m, with no exports in June 2018
• Japan fell $31m (11%), with quantities down 13% and unit values up 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $11m, with quantities up 2% and unit values down 2%.

Hard coking coal, up $17m (1%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• Vietnam rose $117m, following no exports in May 2018
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $65m (8%), with quantities up 12% and unit values down 4%
• Japan fell $169m (39%), with quantities down 41% and unit values up 4%.

Semi-soft coal, up $96m (11%), with quantities up 16% and unit values down 4%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $84m (73%), with unit values down 15%.

Thermal coal, up $226m (12%), with quantities up 12%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwain) rose $247m (66%), with quantities up 60% and unit values up 4%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $414m (14%), with quantities up 15% and unit values down 1%.