ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,359m in June 2016, a decrease of $14m (1%) on the deficit in May 2016.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,195m in June 2016, an increase of $777m (32%) on the deficit in May 2016.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2016 was a deficit of $7,437m, a decrease of $1,444m (16%) on the deficit of $8,881m for the three months to March 2016. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2016 deficit was $7,983m, a decrease of $674m (8%) on the March quarter 2016 deficit of $8,657m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 824	-2 418	-3 195	-777	-32
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 935	26 016	25 803	-213	-1
		Total goods		20 229	20 291	20 076	-215	-1
			Rural goods(b)	3 441	3 348	3 383	35	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	14 831	15 171	15 191	20	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	28	28	28	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 929	1 744	1 474	-270	-15
		Total services		5 706	5 725	5 727	2	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-27 759	-28 434	-28 998	564	2
		Total goods		-21 495	-22 171	-22 756	585	3
			Consumption goods	-8 018	-7 951	-8 539	588	7
			Capital goods	-4 736	-5 054	-5 201	147	3
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 315	-8 614	-8 522	-92	-1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-427	-551	-494	-57	-10
		Total services		-6 264	-6 263	-6 242	-21	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 461	-2 373	-2 359	14	1
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			25 722	25 896	26 045	149	1
		Total goods		20 023	20 188	20 330	142	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 387	3 357	3 330	-27	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	14 944	15 086	15 234	148	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	29	29	28	-1	-3
			Non-monetary gold	1 663	1 717	1 738	21	1
		Total services		5 699	5 707	5 715	8	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 183	-28 269	-28 403	134	-
		Total goods		-21 933	-22 041	-22 196	155	1
			Consumption goods	-8 077	-8 148	-8 226	78	1
			Capital goods	-5 029	-5 029	-5 043	14	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-8 359	-8 367	-8 412	45	1
			Non-monetary gold	-468	-497	-515	18	4
		Total services		-6 250	-6 228	-6 207	-21	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $149m (1%) to $26,045m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $213m (1%) to $25,803m. Non-monetary gold fell $270m (15%). Rural goods rose $35m (1%) and non-rural goods rose $20m. Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $28m. Services credits rose $2m.


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				20 229	20 291	20 076	-215	-1
	General merchandise			18 272	18 519	18 574	55	-
		Rural goods		3 441	3 348	3 383	35	1
			Meat and meat preparations	955	981	1 001	20	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	607	556	582	26	5
			Wool and sheepskins	274	283	287	4	1
			Other rural(a)	1 605	1 529	1 514	-15	-1
		Non-rural goods		14 831	15 171	15 191	20	-
			Metal ores and minerals	5 809	5 935	6 030	95	2
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 617	2 896	2 754	-142	-5
			Other mineral fuels(c)	1 822	1 743	1 770	27	2
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	688	743	806	63	8
			Machinery	865	853	901	48	6
			Transport equipment	480	439	421	-18	-4
			Other manufactures	1 582	1 575	1 583	8	1
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	843	858	780	-78	-9
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	126	129	145	16	12
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			28	28	28	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 929	1 744	1 474	-270	-15
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $27m (1%) to $3,330m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $35m (1%) to $3,383m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $26m (5%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $20m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was other rural, down $15m (1%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $148m (1%) to $15,234m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $20m to $15,191m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $95m (2%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $63m (8%)
• machinery, up $48m (6%)
• other mineral fuels, up $27m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $142m (5%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), down $78m (9%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (3%) to $28m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $28m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $21m (1%) to $1,738m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $270m (15%) to $1,474m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 706	5 725	5 727	2	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	1	1	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		5	5	5	-	-
	Transport		565	569	572	3	1
		Passenger(b)	207	210	212	2	1
		Freight(c)	23	22	25	3	14
		Other	230	230	231	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	106	106	105	-1	-1
	Travel		3 470	3 476	3 476	-	-
	Other services		1 664	1 674	1 673	-1	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 677	3 686	3 688	2	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $8m to $5,715m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $2m to $5,727m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, up $3m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $2m to $3,688m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 22% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2016, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $134m to $28,403m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $564m (2%) to $28,998m. Consumption goods rose $588m (7%) and capital goods rose $147m (3%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $92m (1%) and non-monetary gold fell $57m (10%). Services debits fell $21m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-21 495	-22 171	-22 756	585	3
	General merchandise			-21 068	-21 620	-22 262	642	3
		Consumption goods		-8 018	-7 951	-8 539	588	7
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 206	-1 183	-1 241	58	5
			Household electrical items	-500	-463	-498	35	8
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 926	-1 920	-2 035	115	6
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 367	-1 387	-1 424	37	3
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-498	-502	-509	7	1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 519	-2 496	-2 831	335	13
		Capital goods		-4 736	-5 054	-5 201	147	3
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 684	-1 631	-1 726	95	6
			ADP equipment	-721	-728	-726	-2	-
			Telecommunications equipment	-771	-934	-961	27	3
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-150	-125	-127	2	2
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-740	-732	-751	19	3
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-671	-905	-909	4	-
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-8 315	-8 614	-8 522	-92	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-154	-149	-142	-7	-5
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-138	-239	-135	-104	-44
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-1 945	-2 023	-1 968	-55	-3
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 009	-984	-1 035	51	5
			Parts for ADP equipment	-51	-51	-54	3	6
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 194	-1 184	-1 234	50	4
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-320	-336	-337	1	-
			Paper and paperboard	-202	-200	-208	8	4
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-112	-124	-122	-2	-2
			Iron and steel	-185	-179	-183	4	2
			Plastics	-341	-340	-347	7	2
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 540	-2 572	-2 620	48	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-35	-146	-50	-96	-66
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-88	-88	-87	-1	-1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-427	-551	-494	-57	-10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $78m (1%) to $8,226m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $588m (7%) to $8,539m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $335m (13%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $115m (6%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $58m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $14m to $5,043m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $147m (3%) to $5,201m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $95m (6%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $27m (3%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $19m (3%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $45m (1%) to $8,412m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $92m (1%) to $8,522m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $104m (44%)
• other merchandise goods, down $96m (66%)
• fuels and lubricants, down $55m (3%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• parts for transport equipment, up $51m (5%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $50m (4%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $48m (2%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $18m (4%) to $515m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $57m (10%) to $494m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016	Jun 2016
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 264	-6 263	-6 242	-21	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-90	-50	-40	-10	-20
	Transport		-1 302	-1 312	-1 296	-16	-1
		Passenger(c)	-472	-494	-477	-17	-3
		Freight	-763	-750	-756	6	1
		Other(b)	-59	-59	-57	-2	-3
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-8	-8	-6	-2	-25
	Travel		-2 749	-2 769	-2 774	5	-
	Other services		-2 123	-2 133	-2 131	-2	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 221	-3 263	-3 252	-11	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $21m to $6,207m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $21m to $6,242m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $16m (1%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $10m (20%).

Partly offsetting these falls was travel, up $5m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $11m to $3,252m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 22% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Jan 2016	Feb 2016	Mar 2016	Apr 2016	May 2016	Jun 2016
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-18	16	2	-5	13	-4
	Unit value	9	9	13	4	4	-10
Fines
	Quantity	-14	7	9	-3	2	1
	Unit value	2	7	12	3	2	-6
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	4	-17	13	2	18	-6
	Unit value	3	-2	-4	p1	6	p2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-1	-26	52	-12	-5	9
	Unit value	3	-2	-5	p-1	6	p1
Thermal
	Quantity	-10	-3	4	-6	3	3
	Unit value	-1	-	-7	-2	7	-3
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-2	3	12	-8	-13	23
	Unit value	-2	-5	-8	-12	-3	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2016 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $162m (13%), with quantities down 4% and unit values down 10%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $88m (10%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 9%
• Korea, Republic of fell $52m (57%), with quantities down 54% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan fell $26m (30%), with quantities down 16% and unit values down 17%.

Iron ore fines, down $159m (5%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 6%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $69m (2%), with quantities up 4% and unit values down 6%
• Japan fell $57m (23%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 7%
• Taiwan fell $23m (44%), with quantities down 30% and unit values down 20%.

Hard coking coal, down $54m (4%), with quantities down 6% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• Netherlands fell $32m (35%), with quantities down 36% and unit values up 1%
• Brazil fell $21m (49%), with quantities down 54% and unit values up 10%.

Semi-soft coal, up $49m (10%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• India rose $41m (59%), with quantities up 47% and unit values up 9%
• Japan rose $15m (10%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 1%.

Thermal coal, down $0.2m, with quantities up 3% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• Korea, Republic of fell $21m (14%), with quantities down 17% and unit values up 3%
• Mexico fell $21m with no exports from Australia in June 2016
• Japan fell $14m (3%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $49m (29%), with quantities up 31% and unit values down 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $223m (22%), with quantities up 23% and unit values down 1%.