ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,940m in June 2011, a rise of $128m on the surplus in May 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,052m in June 2011, a fall of $647m on the surplus in May 2011.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2011 was a surplus of $6,418m, an increase of $3,457m on the surplus of $2,961m for the three months to March 2011. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the June quarter 2011 surplus was $6,168m, an increase of $2,896m on the revised March quarter 2011 surplus of $3,272m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May 2011 and June 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $393m (2%) to $26,274m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $36m to $26,405m. Non-monetary gold fell $894m (55%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (6%). Non-rural goods rose $770m (4%) and rural goods rose $86m (3%). Services credits rose $5m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $72m (3%) to $2,858m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $86m (3%) to $2,897m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $43m (6%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $32m (6%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $342m (2%) to $18,017m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $770m (4%) to $18,478m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $675m (18%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $317m (4%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the metals (excl. non-monetary gold) component, down $139m (13%).

For price and volume details, see the section Commodity value adjustment.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (6%) to $34m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (6%) to $33m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $39m (3%) to $1,123m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold for June 2011 fell $894m (55%), after rising $535m (49%) between April and May 2011.

On a recorded trade basis, between May and June 2011, non-monetary gold fell $873m (56%). This was primarily due to a decrease in exports to United Kingdom, down $889m, on volumes.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $16m to $4,242m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $5m to $4,271m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $7m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $8m to $2,866m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May 2011 and June 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $264m (1%) to $24,334m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $611m (3%) to $24,353m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $320m (4%), capital goods rose $296m (7%) and non-monetary gold rose $22m (6%) while consumption goods fell $34m (1%). Services debits rose $8m.

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes rose 3.3% and the implicit price deflator rose 0.6% during the June quarter 2011. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose 0.7% and the implicit price deflator rose 0.1%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2011 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $20m to $5,355m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $34m (1%) to $5,199m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $57m (3%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $29m (4%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the non-industrial transport equipment component, up $59m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $4m to $4,263m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $296m (7%) to $4,346m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., up $304m (57%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $162m (2%) to $9,230m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $320m (4%) to $9,304m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $333m (11%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $15m (4%) to $392m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $22m (6%) to $390m


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $62m (1%) to $5,093m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $8m to $5,114m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, up $12m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $3m to $2,865m.