Analysis and comments


Balance on goods and services

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $7,291m in July 2019, an increase of $284m on the surplus in June 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $7,268m in July 2019, a decrease of $709m on the surplus in June 2019.

Goods and services summary(a), Seasonally adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally adjusted
Balance on goods and services				6 150	7 977	7 268	-709	-9
Credits
	Total goods and services			41 699	42 268	42 538	270	1
		Total goods		33 373	33 924	34 156	232	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 967	3 804	3 762	-42	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 701	28 453	27 646	-807	-3
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	18	18	12	-6	-33
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 687	1 650	2 736	1 086	66
		Total services		8 325	8 344	8 382	38	-
Debits
	Total goods and services			-35 549	-34 291	-35 270	979	3
		Total goods		-27 074	-25 827	-26 836	1 009	4
			Consumption goods	-8 811	-8 401	-8 779	378	4
			Capital goods	-6 811	-6 196	-6 109	-87	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 973	-10 620	-11 161	541	5
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-478	-610	-787	177	29
		Total services		-8 475	-8 464	-8 434	-30	-
Trend(d)
Balance on goods and services				6 632	7 007	7 291	284	4
Credits
	Total goods and services			41 629	42 046	42 297	251	1
		Total goods		33 325	33 705	33 928	223	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 932	3 868	3 812	-56	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 546	27 858	28 056	198	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	18	16	15	-1	-6
			Non-monetary gold	1 830	1 962	2 047	85	4
		Total services		8 304	8 342	8 368	26	-
Debits
	Total goods and services			-34 997	-35 039	-35 006	-33	-
		Total goods		-26 592	-26 613	-26 546	-67	-
			Consumption goods	-8 720	-8 702	-8 653	-49	-1
			Capital goods	-6 419	-6 369	-6 275	-94	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 922	-10 955	-10 966	11	-
			Non-monetary gold	-531	-588	-651	63	11
		Total services		-8 406	-8 425	-8 460	35	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

Exports of goods and services

Between June and July 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $251m (1%) to $42,297m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $270m (1%) to $42,538m. Non-monetary gold rose $1,086m (66%). Non-rural goods fell $807m (3%), rural goods fell $42m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $6m (33%). Services credits rose $38m.


Exports of goods


Goods credits

Goods credits, Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				33 373	33 924	34 156	232	1
	General merchandise			31 668	32 256	31 408	-848	-3
		Rural goods		3 967	3 804	3 762	-42	-1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 214	1 315	1 341	26	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	579	382	403	21	5
			Wool and sheepskins	336	271	316	45	17
			Other rural(a)	1 838	1 836	1 702	-134	-7
		Non-rural goods		27 701	28 453	27 646	-807	-3
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	11 252	11 849	11 760	-89	-1
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 825	6 070	5 499	-571	-9
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 044	4 611	4 825	214	5
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 102	1 310	895	-415	-32
			Machinery	991	977	985	8	1
			Transport equipment	402	473	464	-9	-2
			Other manufactures	1 979	2 093	2 045	-48	-2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	952	932	1 083	151	16
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	155	138	90	-48	-35
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			18	18	12	-6	-33
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 687	1 650	2 736	1 086	66
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

Rural goods

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $56m (1%) to $3,812m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $42m (1%) to $3,762m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, down $134m (7%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• wool and sheepskins, up $45m (17%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $26m (2%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $21m (5%).

Non-rural goods

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $198m (1%) to $28,056m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $807m (3%) to $27,646m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $571m (9%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $415m (32%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other mineral fuels, up $214m (5%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

Net exports of goods under merchanting

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (6%) to $15m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $6m (33%) to $12m.

Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $85m (4%) to $2,047m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $1,086m (66%) to $2,736m.


Exports of services


Services credits

Services credits, Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			8 325	8 344	8 382	38	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	4	3	-1	-25
	Transport		675	675	665	-10	-1
		Passenger(b)	271	270	268	-2	-1
		Freight(c)	22	22	22	-	-
		Other	243	242	245	3	1
		Postal and courier services(d)	139	140	130	-10	-7
	Travel		5 447	5 453	5 461	8	-
	Other services		2 199	2 211	2 253	42	2
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 718	5 723	5 729	6	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $26m to $8,368m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $38m to $8,382m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $42m (2%).

Partly offsetting this rise was transport, down $10m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $6m to $5,729m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


Imports of goods and services

Between June and July 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $33m to $35,006m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $979m (3%) to $35,270m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $541m (5%), consumption goods rose $378m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $177m (29%). Capital goods fell $87m (1%). Services debits fell $30m.


Imports of goods


Goods debits

Goods debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-27 074	-25 827	-26 836	1 009	4
	General merchandise			-26 596	-25 217	-26 049	832	3
		Consumption goods		-8 811	-8 401	-8 779	378	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 430	-1 435	-1 465	30	2
			Household electrical items	-497	-484	-497	13	3
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 952	-1 682	-1 922	240	14
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 506	-1 507	-1 537	30	2
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-534	-523	-543	20	4
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 893	-2 770	-2 816	46	2
		Capital goods		-6 811	-6 196	-6 109	-87	-1
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 184	-2 061	-2 123	62	3
			ADP equipment	-947	-933	-918	-15	-2
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 138	-1 039	-1 180	141	14
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-670	-363	-233	-130	-36
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 191	-981	-959	-22	-2
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-681	-820	-695	-125	-15
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 973	-10 620	-11 161	541	5
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-159	-221	-191	-30	-14
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-104	-130	-173	43	33
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 384	-3 017	-3 431	414	14
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 146	-1 106	-1 113	7	1
			Parts for ADP equipment	-50	-53	-57	4	8
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 618	-1 632	-1 635	3	-
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-280	-251	-271	20	8
			Paper and paperboard	-205	-210	-217	7	3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-122	-118	-118	-	-
			Iron and steel	-265	-272	-249	-23	-8
			Plastics	-371	-359	-378	19	5
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 126	-3 125	-3 177	52	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-38	-20	-37	17	85
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-104	-105	-112	7	7
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-478	-610	-787	177	29
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

Consumption goods

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $49m (1%) to $8,653m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $378m (4%) to $8,779m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $240m (14%).


Capital goods

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $94m (1%) to $6,275m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $87m (1%) to $6,109m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $130m (36%)
• capital goods n.e.s., down $125m (15%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $141m (14%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $62m (3%).

Intermediate and other merchandise goods

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $11m to $10,966m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $541m (5%) to $11,161m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $414m (14%).


Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $63m (11%) to $651m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $177m (29%) to $787m.


Imports of services


Services debits

Services debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019	Jul 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 475	-8 464	-8 434	-30	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-123	-74	-52	-22	-30
	Transport		-1 585	-1 557	-1 539	-18	-1
		Passenger(c)	-636	-666	-654	-12	-2
		Freight	-862	-803	-791	-12	-1
		Other(b)	-79	-80	-86	6	8
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-8	-7	-8	1	14
	Travel		-4 276	-4 330	-4 345	15	-
	Other services		-2 491	-2 504	-2 498	-6	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 912	-4 997	-4 999	2	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $35m to $8,460m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $30m to $8,434m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $22m (30%)
• transport, down $18m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls was travel, up $15m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $2m to $4,999m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.

Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	4	-15	17	21	-5	-9
	Unit value	10	2	5	4	9	-
Fines
	Quantity	5	-14	20	11	-2	-6
	Unit value	15	8	5	7	8	-
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-28	54	-25	27	18	-21
	Unit value	-4	3	p -	p2	p -	p-5
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-19	19	-3	3	23	-21
	Unit value	1	-2	1	p1	p-4	p-5
Thermal
	Quantity	-18	9	8	-3	7	16
	Unit value	-4	-2	-8	p1	p-4	p-7
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	-9	7	7	-1	-3	13
	Unit value	-1	-4	-16	2	-6	10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between June to July 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $244m (9%), with quantities down 9%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $220m (10%), with quantities down 8% and unit values down 3%
• Japan fell $19m (6%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 12%.

Iron ore fines, down $387m (6%), with quantities down 6%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $353m (6%), with quantities down 5% and unit value down 1%
• Taiwan fell $48m (52%), with quantities down 56% and unit values up 11%
• Japan rose $54m (16%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 11%.

Hard coking coal, down $871m (25%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• India fell $260m (27%), with quantities down 25% and unit values down 3%
• Netherlands fell $144m (59%), with quantities down 58% and unit values down 3%
• the Republic of Korea fell $100m (36%), with quantities down 27% and unit values down 12%
• Vietnam fell $95m (73%), with quantities down 70% and unit values down 11%
• Japan fell $79m (21%), with quantities down 21% and unit values up 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $43m (5%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 2%.

Semi-soft coal, down $289m (25%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 5%. Exports to:

• India fell $92m (40%), with quantities down 41% and unit values up 2%
• Japan fell $81m (24%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 6%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $55m (26%), with quantities down 25% and unit values down 2%
• Malaysia fell $49m (100%), with no exports in July 2019.

Thermal coal, up $149m (8%), with quantities up 16% and unit values down 7%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $81m (19%), with quantities up 26% and unit values down 6%
• the Republic of Korea rose $61m (31%), with quantities up 51% and unit values down 13%
• Taiwan rose $41m (19%), with quantities up 22% and unit values down 2%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $850m (24%), with quantities up 13% and unit values up 10%.