ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $986m in January 2014, an increase of $389m (65%) on the surplus in December 2013.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,433m in January 2014, an increase of $842m (142%) on the surplus in December 2013.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2013 and January 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $448m (2%) to $28,972m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,068m (4%) to $29,759m. Non-rural goods rose $536m (3%), non-monetary gold rose $425m (44%) and rural goods rose $178m (5%). Net exports of goods under merchanting fell $8m (18%). Services credits fell $63m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $120m (4%) to $3,548m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $178m (5%) to $3,802m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $98m (6%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $94m (11%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $315m (2%) to $19,429m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $536m (3%) to $19,886m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $290m (3%)
• other mineral fuels, up $162m (6%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $55m (2%)
• machinery, up $42m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $43m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $8m (18%) to $37m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $6m to $1,272m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $425m (44%) to $1,386m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $6m to $4,680m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $63m (1%) to $4,648m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, down $52m (4%)
• travel, down $13m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $12m to $2,954m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between December 2013 and January 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $59m to $27,986m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $226m (1%) to $28,327m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $753m (8%) and consumption goods rose $47m (1%). Capital goods fell $532m (9%) and non-monetary gold fell $95m (27%). Services debits rose $53m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $18m to $6,878m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $47m (1%) to $6,961m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $115m (5%)
• household electrical items, up $56m (13%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $47m (5%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $45m (4%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the non-industrial transport equipment component, down $240m (15%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $45m (1%) to $5,290m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $532m (9%) to $5,099m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $622m (52%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $166m (24%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the machinery and industrial equipment component, up $304m (19%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $103m (1%) to $9,970m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $753m (8%) to $10,400m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $219m (6%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $151m (19%)
• iron and steel, up $131m (54%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $60m (5%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $46m (16%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $26m (8%) to $291m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $95m (27%) to $256m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $10m to $5,558m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $53m (1%) to $5,611m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, up $55m (4%)
• travel, up $12m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the other services component, down $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $2m to $2,879m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Aug 2013	Sep 2013	Oct 2013	Nov 2013	Dec 2013	Jan 2014
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-	5	9	-6	14	-16
	Unit value	6	-1	-5	2	4	4
Fines
	Quantity	14	-1	-	-3	7	-10
	Unit value	7	-	-4	2	7	2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	4	11	8	-4	-4	2
	Unit value	-1	-3	-	5	2	3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	23	-2	11	-19	12	-14
	Unit value	-4	-5	-1	2	4	-
Thermal
	Quantity	-11	-5	12	-12	31	-20
	Unit value	1	-3	-4	-	5	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between December 2013 and January 2014 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump fell $240m (13%), with quantities down 16% and unit values up 4%.
Exports to:

• China fell $188m (14%), with quantities down 17% and unit values up 4%
• Japan fell $138m (35%), with quantities down 39% and unit values up 5%.

Partly offsetting these falls was exports to the Republic of Korea, up $73m (100%), with quantities up 92% and unit values up 4%.

Iron ore fines fell $437m (8%), with quantities down 10% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• China fell $272m (6%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 1%
• Japan fell $119m (23%), with quantities down 27% and unit values up 5%.

Hard coking coal rose $71m (5%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 3%.
Exports to:

• Japan rose $54m (20%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 2%.

Semi-soft coal fell $98m (14%), with quantities down 14%.
Exports to:

• China fell $115m (58%), with quantities down 58%.

Thermal coal fell $319m (18%), with quantities down 20% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $169m (21%), with quantities down 23% and unit values up 2%
• Taiwan fell $91m (44%), with quantities down 44% and unit values up 1%
• China fell $53m (16%), with quantities down 22% and unit values up 7%.