ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,453m in January 2009, a decrease of $6m on a revised surplus in December 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $970m in January 2009, an increase of $553m on a revised surplus in December 2008.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $308m (1%) between December 2008 and January 2009 to $25,725m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,269m (5%) to $24,244m. Non-rural goods fell $1,319m (8%) and rural goods fell $76m (3%) while other goods rose $105m (7%). Services credits rose $21m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $38m (1%) to $2,576m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods fell $76m (3%) to $2,520m. Cereal grains and cereal preparations fell $85m (13%) after rising $189m (41%) the previous month.

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $424m (16%) to $2,251m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $360m (2%) to $16,819m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,319m (8%) to $15,348m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $1,043m (19%). In original terms, metallurgical coal fell $945m (27%) with volumes down 22% and prices down 6%.
• metals (excl. gold), down $129m (12%)
• other non-rural, down $89m (9%)
• machinery, down $64m (8%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the metal ores and minerals component, up $71m (2%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $3,453m (20%) to $14,018m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods fell $10m (1%) to $1,667m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods rose $105m (7%) to $1,692m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, the non-monetary gold component rose $78m (6%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $105m (7%) to $1,686m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $24m (1%) to $4,663m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $21m to $4,683m.

The only component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $44m (3%) while transportation services fell $23m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $28m (1%) to $2,795m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $302m (1%) between December 2008 and January 2009 to $24,273m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $1,822m (7%) to $23,274m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $1,059m (12%), capital goods fell $802m (15%) and consumption goods fell $182m (3%) while other goods rose $329m (30%). Services debits fell $109m (2%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $28m (1%) to $5,358m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $182m (3%) to $5,232m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $173m (14%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $686m (12%) to $4,847m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $35m (1%) to $4,408m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $802m (15%) to $4,487m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s. (which includes civil aircraft and confidential commodities), down $605m (33%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $111m (18%)
• ADP equipment, down $85m (13%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $63m (4%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the telecommunications equipment component, up $61m (12%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $1,416m (26%) to $4,100m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $335m (4%) to $8,325m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $1,059m (12%) to $7,449m.

The main components contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $322m (15%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $320m (16%)
• iron and steel, down $226m (33%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, down $69m (13%)
• parts for transport equipment, down $67m (9%).

On a recorded trade basis, in original terms, crude petroleum was down $302m (29%) with volumes down 15% and prices down 16%. Refined petroleum was down $135m (14%) with volumes down 9% and prices down 6%.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $1,113m (13%) to $7,314m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $19m (1%) to $1,414m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $329m (30%) to $1,424m.

The main components contributing to this increase were non-monetary gold, up $181m (23%) and goods for processing, up $164m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $22m to $4,768m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $109m (2%) to $4,681m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was transportation services, down $157m (10%) with freight transportation services down $135m (15%). This was partly offset by other services, up $53m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $26m (1%) to $2,178m.