ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,390m in February 2011, a decrease of $263m on the surplus in January 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $205m in February 2011, a turnaround of $1,638m on the surplus in January 2011.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January 2011 and February 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $111m to $24,000m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $554m (2%) to $22,843m. Non-monetary gold fell $688m (45%) and non-rural goods fell $253m (2%). Rural goods rose $275m (12%) and net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady. Services credits rose $112m (3%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $46m (2%) to $2,468m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $275m (12%) to $2,606m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, up $132m (26%)
• other rural, up $68m (7%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $38m (6%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $103m (1%) to $16,087m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $253m (2%) to $15,073m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $543m (8%).

Partly offsetting this decrease were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $167m (17%)
• other manufactures, up $101m (8%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities table at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m to -$4m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $2m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $30m (2%) to $1,190m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $688m (45%) to $847m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $23m (1%) to $4,258m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $112m (3%) to $4,315m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $115m (5%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $110m (4%) to $2,895m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between January 2011 and February 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $153m (1%) to $22,611m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,084m (5%) to $23,048m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $854m (12%), capital goods rose $92m (2%), non-monetary gold rose $53m (19%) and consumption goods rose $11m. Services debits rose $75m (2%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $25m to $5,254m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $11m to $5,259m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was textiles, clothing and footwear, up $60m (9%).

Partly offsetting this increase was the consumption goods n.e.s. component, down $58m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $69m (2%) to $4,135m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $92m (2%) to $4,214m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $155m (33%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $81m (6%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the industrial transport equipment n.e.s. component, down $69m (10%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $107m (1%) to $7,930m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $854m (12%) to $8,221m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $561m (26%) after decreasing $763m (26%) the previous month
• processed industrial supplied n.e.s., up $98m (5%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $79m (7%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $41m (10%) to $359m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $53m (19%) to $339m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $42m (1%) to $4,933m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $75m (2%) to $5,015m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $54m (2%)
• transport, up $30m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $56m (2%) to $2,833m.


Selected Commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis
		Sep 2010	Oct 2010	Nov 2010	Dec 2010	Jan 2011	Feb 2011
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	8	10	-11	14	-15	np
	Price	-2	-12	1	3	7	np
Fines
	Volumes	4	7	-6	10	-16	np
	Price	-2	-11	1	5	7	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	-11	-4	10	-6	-39	-9
	Price	-4	-6	-6	-	-1	6
Semi-soft
	Volumes	-8	8	-5	3	-33	1
	Price	-10	-	-6	-2	-2	5
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	7	-1	-19	15	-10	-20
	Price	-1	-6	-	2	5	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

On a revised recorded trade basis, between January and February 2011, a large value decrease was recorded for bituminous (thermal) coal which fell $200m (18%) with exports to Japan down $160m (25%) and Republic of Korea down $68m (26%), driven by decreases in volumes of 24% and 32%, respectively.

On a revised merchandise trade basis, between January and February 2011, non-monetary gold fell $669m (46%). This was driven by a decrease in exports to Thailand, down $348m (69%), with volumes down 67%, and China down $183m.

See the Impact of the Floods on February 2011 exports for details.