ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,313m in December 2015, an increase of $168m (5%) on the deficit in November 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,535m in December 2015, an increase of $808m (30%) on the deficit in November 2015.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balance for the three months to December 2015 was a deficit of $9,515m, an increase of $2,041m (27%) on the deficit of $7,474m for the three months to September 2015. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary December quarter 2015 deficit was $9,782m, an increase of $2,489m (34%) on the September quarter 2015 deficit of $7,293m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-3 253	-2 727	-3 535	-808	-30
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 534	26 490	25 247	-1 243	-5
		Total goods		20 876	20 754	19 404	-1 350	-7
			Rural goods(b)	3 652	4 214	3 822	-392	-9
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 816	15 352	14 274	-1 078	-7
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	14	14	14	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 393	1 173	1 294	121	10
		Total services		5 658	5 736	5 844	108	2
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 787	-29 216	-28 782	-434	-1
		Total goods		-23 638	-23 124	-22 601	-523	-2
			Consumption goods	-8 002	-8 047	-7 990	-57	-1
			Capital goods	-5 887	-5 509	-5 333	-176	-3
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 315	-9 291	-8 892	-399	-4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-435	-278	-386	108	39
		Total services		-6 149	-6 092	-6 181	89	1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-2 965	-3 145	-3 313	-168	-5
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			26 502	26 252	25 934	-318	-1
		Total goods		20 801	20 498	20 139	-359	-2
			Rural goods(b)	3 693	3 694	3 703	9	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	15 695	15 428	15 119	-309	-2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	21	17	14	-3	-18
			Non-monetary gold	1 392	1 359	1 303	-56	-4
		Total services		5 701	5 754	5 795	41	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 467	-29 398	-29 247	-151	-1
		Total goods		-23 319	-23 250	-23 103	-147	-1
			Consumption goods	-8 097	-8 095	-8 075	-20	-
			Capital goods	-5 649	-5 656	-5 618	-38	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 177	-9 110	-9 026	-84	-1
			Non-monetary gold	-396	-390	-383	-7	-2
		Total services		-6 148	-6 147	-6 143	-4	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $318m (1%) to $25,934m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,243m (5%) to $25,247m. Non-rural goods fell $1,078m (7%) and rural goods fell $392m (9%). Non-monetary gold rose $121m (10%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $14m. Services credits rose $108m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				20 876	20 754	19 404	-1 350	-7
	General merchandise			19 469	19 567	18 096	-1 471	-8
		Rural goods		3 652	4 214	3 822	-392	-9
			Meat and meat preparations	1 054	1 011	1 044	33	3
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	702	702	806	104	15
			Wool and sheepskins	255	252	278	26	10
			Other rural(a)	1 641	2 249	1 694	-555	-25
		Non-rural goods		15 816	15 352	14 274	-1 078	-7
			Metal ores and minerals	5 974	5 813	4 887	-926	-16
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	2 980	2 881	2 653	-228	-8
			Other mineral fuels(c)	2 055	2 135	1 999	-136	-6
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	921	891	965	74	8
			Machinery	894	892	877	-15	-2
			Transport equipment	474	430	423	-7	-2
			Other manufactures	1 490	1 441	1 475	34	2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	908	751	872	121	16
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	121	119	123	4	3
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			14	14	14	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 393	1 173	1 294	121	10
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $9m to $3,703m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $392m (9%) to $3,822m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, down $555m (25%) following a rise of 37% between October and November 2015.

Partly offsetting this fall was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $104m (15%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $309m (2%) to $15,119m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,078m (7%) to $14,274m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $926m (16%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $228m (8%)
• other mineral fuels, down $136m (6%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $121m (16%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (18%) to $14m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $14m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $56m (4%) to $1,303m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $121m (10%) to $1,294m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 658	5 736	5 844	108	2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		1	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		5	8	7	-1	-13
	Transport		591	594	597	3	1
		Passenger(b)	249	253	257	4	2
		Freight(c)	24	24	23	-1	-4
		Other	221	221	222	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	98	95	95	-	-
	Travel		3 392	3 455	3 545	90	3
	Other services		1 669	1 678	1 695	17	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service credits(e)		3 640	3 709	3 802	93	3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $41m (1%) to $5,795m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $108m (2%) to $5,844m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $90m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $93m (3%) to $3,802m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 23% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $151m (1%) to $29,247m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $434m (1%) to $28,782m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $399m (4%), capital goods fell $176m (3%) and consumption goods fell $57m (1%). Non-monetary gold rose $108m (39%). Services debits rose $89m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 638	-23 124	-22 601	-523	-2
	General merchandise			-23 203	-22 846	-22 215	-631	-3
		Consumption goods		-8 002	-8 047	-7 990	-57	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 161	-1 168	-1 146	-22	-2
			Household electrical items	-505	-492	-503	11	2
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 800	-1 903	-1 838	-65	-3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 440	-1 435	-1 424	-11	-1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-532	-517	-507	-10	-2
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 564	-2 532	-2 572	40	2
		Capital goods		-5 887	-5 509	-5 333	-176	-3
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 010	-1 700	-1 803	103	6
			ADP equipment	-844	-990	-747	-243	-25
			Telecommunications equipment	-925	-900	-904	4	-
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-473	-715	-296	-419	-59
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 011	-811	-885	74	9
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-624	-392	-698	306	78
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 315	-9 291	-8 892	-399	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-155	-147	-155	8	5
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-179	-142	-148	6	4
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 240	-2 380	-2 136	-244	-10
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 062	-1 099	-1 022	-77	-7
			Parts for ADP equipment	-58	-60	-59	-1	-2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 286	-1 326	-1 251	-75	-6
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-346	-371	-370	-1	-
			Paper and paperboard	-214	-209	-216	7	3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-128	-125	-121	-4	-3
			Iron and steel	-400	-298	-295	-3	-1
			Plastics	-340	-336	-332	-4	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 758	-2 660	-2 642	-18	-1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-35	-24	-32	8	33
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-114	-114	-113	-1	-1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-435	-278	-386	108	39
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $20m to $8,075m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $57m (1%) to $7,990m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $65m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $38m (1%) to $5,618m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $176m (3%) to $5,333m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $419m (59%)
• ADP equipment, down $243m (25%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $306m (78%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $103m (6%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $74m (9%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $84m (1%) to $9,026m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $399m (4%) to $8,892m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $244m (10%)
• parts for transport equipment, down $77m (7%)
• other parts for capital goods, down $75m (6%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $7m (2%) to $383m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $108m (39%) to $386m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015	Dec 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-6 149	-6 092	-6 181	89	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-42	-27	-62	35	130
	Transport		-1 494	-1 483	-1 489	6	-
		Passenger(c)	-573	-577	-577	-	-
		Freight	-839	-824	-830	6	1
		Other(b)	-72	-72	-72	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-10	-9	-10	1	11
	Travel		-2 511	-2 488	-2 514	26	1
	Other services		-2 101	-2 095	-2 116	21	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-3 084	-3 065	-3 091	26	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $4m to $6,143m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $89m (1%) to $6,181m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $35m (130%)
• travel, up $26m (1%)
• other services, up $21m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related services debits rose $26m (1%) to $3,091m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Jul 2015	Aug 2015	Sep 2015	Oct 2015	Nov 2015	Dec 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-	-2	-3	11	-9	4
	Unit value	-13	7	5	-8	-13	-11
Fines
	Quantity	-6	5	4	-7	-	5
	Unit value	-7	2	5	-5	-9	-14
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-16	4	-4	-5	5	-6
	Unit value	4	1	2	p9	p-1	p-
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-6	21	-8	3	-2	-
	Unit value	-	-1	-1	p3	p-	p-2
Thermal
	Quantity	-4	8	-13	5	-4	8
	Unit value	1	2	1	-3	-4	-1
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	np	4	-12	17	4	5
	Unit value	np	3	7	-5	-8	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between November and December 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $70m (8%), with quantities up 4% and unit values down 11%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $40m (6%), with quantities up 7% and unit values down 12%
• Taiwan fell $31m (69%), with quantities down 63% and unit values down 17%.

Iron ore fines, down $267m (10%), with quantities up 5% and unit values down 14%. Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $264m (11%), with quantities up 4% and unit values down 15%.

Hard coking coal, down $83m (6%), with quantities down 6%. Exports to the Republic of Korea fell $72m (65%), with quantities down 60% and unit values down 12%.

Semi-soft coal, down $10m (2%), with unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $33m (31%), with quantities down 30% and unit values down 2%
• the Netherlands fell $13m (57%), with quantities down 56% and unit values down 4%
• Japan rose $32m (19%), with quantities up 26% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal, up $82m (7%), with quantities up 8% and unit values down 1%. Exports to Japan rose $88m (15%), with quantities up 17% and unit values down 2%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $93m (6%), with quantities up 5% and unit values up 1%.