ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $830m in December 2014, a decrease of $129m (13%) on the deficit in November 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $436m in December 2014, a decrease of $580m (57%) on the deficit in November 2014.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balance for the three months to December 2014 was a deficit of $2,592m, a fall of $1,307m (34%) on the deficit of $3,899m for the three months to September 2014. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary December quarter 2014 deficit was $2,557m, a fall of $1,308m (34%) on the September quarter 2014 deficit of $3,865m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $122m to $27,049m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $374m (1%) to $27,243m. Non-monetary gold rose $428m (52%) and rural goods rose $331m (10%). Non-rural goods fell $417m (2%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $43m. Service credits rose $31m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $43m (1%) to $3,389m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $331m (10%) to $3,630m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $220m (17%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $69m (10%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $105m (1%) to $17,421m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $417m (2%) to $17,291m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, down $585m (20%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $46m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $151m (15%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $130m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (5%) to $45m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $43m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $23m (2%) to $1,181m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $428m (52%) to $1,259m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, service credits fell $5m to $5,013m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, service credits rose $31m (1%) to $5,019m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $22m (1%)
• other services, up $7m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $20m (1%) to $3,186m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $7m to $27,879m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $206m (1%) to $27,680m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $296m (3%) and capital goods fell $5m. Non-monetary gold rose $53m (22%) and consumption goods rose $17m. Service debits rose $25m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $30m to $6,987m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $17m to $7,004m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was household electrical items, up $54m (14%).

Partly offsetting this rise was textiles, clothing and footwear, down $31m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $57m (1%) to $5,547m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $5m to $5,457m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $59m (3%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $26m (4%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $22m (4%).

Partly offsetting these falls was capital goods n.e.s., up $95m (13%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $96m (1%) to $9,243m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $296m (3%) to $9,092m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $496m (16%)
• iron and steel, down $51m (15%).

Partly offsetting these falls was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $303m (13%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $1m to $291m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $53m (22%) to $294m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $1m to $5,810m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of service debits rose $25m to $5,833m

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $28m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related service debits fell $12m to $2,930m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Jul 2014	Aug 2014	Sep 2014	Oct 2014	Nov 2014	Dec 2014
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	9	1	-3	-9	1	19
	Unit value	-7	-2	-4	-	p-2	p6
Fines
	Quantity	4	3	-4	7	-8	9
	Unit value	-	-2	-4	-5	p-4	p12
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-17	13	3	-	5	-11
	Unit value	-1	-	-1	7	p8	p5
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-4	5	5	-2	-13	33
	Unit value	-2	-1	2	3	p6	p4
Thermal
	Quantity	14	-	-9	1	2	12
	Unit value	-2	-1	2	-2	3	5
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Customs and Border Protection and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between November and December 2014 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump rose $270m (26%), with quantities up 19% and unit values up 6%.

Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $168m (24%), with quantities up 18% and unit values up 5%
• Japan rose $96m (41%), with quantities up 32% and unit values up 6%.

Iron ore fines rose $713m (21%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 12%.

Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $536m (20%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 11%
• Japan rose $126m (36%), with quantities up 24% and unit values up 10%.

Hard coking coal fell $94m (7%), with quantities down 11% and unit values up 5%.

Exports to China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $222m (44%), with quantities down 47% and unit values up 5%.

Partly offsetting this fall were exports to:

• India, up $52m (16%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 7%
• the Republic of Korea, up $50m (74%), with quantities up 66% and unit values up 5%.

Semi-soft coal rose $203m (39%), with quantities up 33% and unit values up 4%.

Exports to:

• Japan rose $97m (63%), with quantities up 61% and unit values up 1%
• India rose $62m (105%), with quantities up 95% and unit values up 5%.

Thermal coal rose $239m (18%), with quantities up 12% and unit values up 5%.

Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea, up $111m (56%), with quantities up 53% and unit values up 2%
• Taiwan, up $73m (58%), with quantities up 48% and unit values up 7%.