ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services for December 2008 was a surplus of $1,820m, an increase of $109m (6%) on the revised surplus in November 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in December 2008 was a surplus of $589m in December 2008, a decrease of $390m (40%) on the revised surplus in November 2008.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2008 was a surplus of $4,150m, an increase of $2,115m on the surplus of $2,035m for the three months to September 2008. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the December quarter 2008 surplus was $4,558m, an increase of $3,129m on the revised September quarter 2008 surplus of $1,429m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $216m (1%) between November and December to $26,910m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $811m (3%) to $25,681m. Non-rural goods fell $1,004m (6%) and other goods fell $31m (2%), while rural goods rose $174m (7%). Services credits rose $50m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $67m (3%) to $2,563m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods rose $174m (7%) to $2,634m. The only component that rose was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $212m (46%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $176m (7%) to $2,675m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $120m (1%) to $18,038m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,004m (6%) to $16,798m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $679m (11%)
• other mineral fuels, down $194m (9%)
• metals (excl. gold), down $134m (11%)
• machinery, down $98m (11%).

Partly offsetting these decreases were:

• other non-rural, up $82m (9%)
• transport equipment, up $67m (14%).

In original terms, metallurgical coal decreased $665m (16%) with volumes down 13% and prices down 4%. Non-agglomerated iron ore increased $548m (22%) with volumes up 25% and prices down 2%.

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $219m (1%) to $17,471m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $16m (1%) to $1,688m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods fell $31m (2%) to $1,588m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, down $41m (3%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $38m (2%) to $1,581m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $14m to $4,622m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $50m (1%) to $4,661m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• travel services, up $34m (1%)
• transportation services, up $8m (1%)
• other services, up $8m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $37m (1%) to $2,824m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $107m between November and December to $25,091m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $421m (2%) to $25,092m. Other goods fell $766m (41%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $623m (7%), while capital goods rose $861m (20%) and consumption goods rose $85m (2%). Services debits rose $22m.

Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, decreased about 6.5% and the implicit price deflator rose about 11.1% during the December quarter 2008. The Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 10.3% in original terms. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the December quarter 2008 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $80m (2%) to $5,396m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $85m (2%) to $5,455m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $41m (6%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $36m (5%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $34m (3%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the household electrical items component, down $41m (9%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $260m (4%) to $5,533m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $17m to $4,340m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $861m (20%) to $5,173m.

In December 2008, the civil aircraft component (including commodities subject to 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restrictions) is included with the capital goods n.e.s. component. See the Confidentiality Restrictions note for details. Therefore, the $1,145m movement between November and December 2008 for the capital goods n.e.s. category should be interpreted with caution.

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $759m (17%) to $5,349m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $43m to $9,168m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $623m (7%) to $8,553m.

The main components contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $334m (14%). In original terms, refined petroleum was down $196m (17%) with volumes up 16% and prices down 28%, driven by diesel down $250m (32%) with volumes down 18% and prices down 17%. Crude petroleum was down $113m (10%) with volumes up 26% and prices down 29%.
• parts for transport equipment, down $102m (12%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $97m (4%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the iron and steel component, up $54m (9%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $675m (7%) to $8,427m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $41m (3%) to $1,391m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $766m (41%) to $1,095m.

The main components contributing to this decrease were:

• non-monetary gold, down $668m (45%)
• goods for processing, down $100m (68%).

Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $46m (1%) to $4,796m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $22m to $4,816m.

Components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $17m (1%)
• travel services, up $11m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $21m (1%) to $2,213m.