ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,883m in April 2015, an increase of $292m (18%) on the deficit in March 2015.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $3,888m in April 2015, an increase of $2,657m (216%) on the deficit in March 2015.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 591	-1 231	-3 888	-2 657	-216
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			27 642	27 220	25 659	-1 561	-6
		Total goods		22 309	21 837	20 224	-1 613	-7
			Rural goods(b)	3 904	3 805	3 774	-31	-1
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 984	16 593	15 322	-1 271	-8
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	34	34	29	-5	-15
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 387	1 405	1 099	-306	-22
		Total services		5 334	5 383	5 435	52	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-29 233	-28 451	-29 547	1 096	4
		Total goods		-23 458	-22 550	-23 690	1 140	5
			Consumption goods	-7 546	-7 310	-7 624	314	4
			Capital goods	-5 875	-5 574	-6 120	546	10
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 675	-9 290	-9 661	371	4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-362	-376	-285	-91	-24
		Total services		-5 776	-5 900	-5 857	-43	-1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				-1 366	-1 591	-1 883	-292	-18
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			27 127	26 958	26 726	-232	-1
		Total goods		21 784	21 581	21 323	-258	-1
			Rural goods(b)	3 711	3 799	3 869	70	2
			Non-rural goods(b)	16 766	16 472	16 129	-343	-2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	35	33	31	-2	-6
			Non-monetary gold	1 272	1 277	1 294	17	1
		Total services		5 344	5 377	5 403	26	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-28 493	-28 549	-28 609	60	-
		Total goods		-22 706	-22 742	-22 779	37	-
			Consumption goods	-7 377	-7 467	-7 549	82	1
			Capital goods	-5 575	-5 483	-5 370	-113	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 438	-9 468	-9 528	60	1
			Non-monetary gold	-316	-323	-332	9	3
		Total services		-5 787	-5 808	-5 830	22	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between March and April 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $232m (1%) to $26,726m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,561m (6%) to $25,659m. Non-rural goods fell $1,271m (8%) partly driven by coal, coke and briquettes, down $859m (22%) as a result of the temporary closure of ports due to severe weather conditions. Non-monetary gold fell $306m (22%), rural goods fell $31m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $5m (15%). Services credits rose $52m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				22 309	21 837	20 224	-1 613	-7
	General merchandise			20 888	20 398	19 096	-1 302	-6
		Rural goods		3 904	3 805	3 774	-31	-1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 114	1 171	1 143	-28	-2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	839	834	860	26	3
			Wool and sheepskins	264	253	255	2	1
			Other rural(a)	1 686	1 548	1 516	-32	-2
		Non-rural goods		16 984	16 593	15 322	-1 271	-8
			Metal ores and minerals	6 414	6 207	5 399	-808	-13
			Coal, coke and briquettes(b)	3 360	3 883	3 024	-859	-22
			Other mineral fuels(c)	2 567	1 844	2 032	188	10
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	893	870	817	-53	-6
			Machinery	862	856	881	25	3
			Transport equipment	456	477	513	36	8
			Other manufactures	1 466	1 415	1 448	33	2
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	835	915	1 076	161	18
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	131	126	131	5	4
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(d)			34	34	29	-5	-15
	Non-monetary gold(d)			1 387	1 405	1 099	-306	-22
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $70m (2%) to $3,869m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $31m (1%) to $3,774m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, down $32m (2%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $28m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $26m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $343m (2%) to $16,129m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,271m (8%) to $15,322m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $859m (22%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $808m (13%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• other mineral fuels, up $188m (10%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $161m (18%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $2m (6%) to $31m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $5m (15%) to $29m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $17m (1%) to $1,294m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $306m (22%) to $1,099m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services credits			5 334	5 383	5 435	52	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	2	1	-1	-50
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	4	4	-	-
	Transport		567	568	585	17	3
		Passenger(b)	206	208	218	10	5
		Freight(c)	20	20	19	-1	-5
		Other	234	234	234	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	107	107	114	7	7
	Travel		3 173	3 216	3 235	19	1
	Other services		1 587	1 593	1 610	17	1
Tourism related service credits(e)			3 380	3 424	3 453	29	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, service credits rose $26m to $5,403m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $52m (1%) to $5,435m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $19m (1%)
• transport, up $17m (3%), with passenger transport up $10m (5%)
• other services, up $17m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $29m (1%) to $3,453m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between March and April 2015, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $60m to $28,609m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,096m (4%) to $29,547m. Capital goods rose $546m (10%) driven by imports of machinery and industrial equipment, up $1,232m (69%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $371m (4%) and consumption goods rose $314m (4%). Non-monetary gold fell $91m (24%). Services debits fell $43m (1%).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 458	-22 550	-23 690	1 140	5
	General merchandise			-23 096	-22 174	-23 405	1 231	6
		Consumption goods		-7 546	-7 310	-7 624	314	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 082	-1 132	-1 087	-45	-4
			Household electrical items	-533	-465	-468	3	1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 688	-1 541	-1 826	285	18
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 342	-1 361	-1 297	-64	-5
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-534	-499	-497	-2	-
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 367	-2 312	-2 449	137	6
		Capital goods		-5 875	-5 574	-6 120	546	10
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 731	-1 785	-3 017	1 232	69
			ADP equipment	-819	-878	-885	7	1
			Telecommunications equipment	-974	-943	-953	10	1
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-562	-643	-301	-342	-53
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-628	-634	-796	162	26
			Capital goods n.e.s.	-1 160	-690	-168	-522	-76
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 675	-9 290	-9 661	371	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-143	-139	-146	7	5
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-156	-176	-145	-31	-18
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 373	-2 305	-2 754	449	19
			Parts for transport equipment	-926	-921	-919	-2	-
			Parts for ADP equipment	-70	-61	-61	-	-
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 263	-1 360	-1 288	-72	-5
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-352	-361	-371	10	3
			Paper and paperboard	-211	-195	-200	5	3
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-128	-117	-120	3	3
			Iron and steel	-410	-442	-490	48	11
			Plastics	-342	-305	-325	20	7
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 127	-2 728	-2 678	-50	-2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(d)(e)	-30	-37	-27	-10	-27
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-143	-142	-138	-4	-3
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-362	-376	-285	-91	-24
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $82m (1%) to $7,549m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $314m (4%) to $7,624m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $285m (18%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $137m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $64m (5%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $45m (4%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $113m (2%) to $5,370m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $546m (10%) to $6,120m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $1,232m (69%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $162m (26%).

Partly offsetting these rises were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $522m (76%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $342m (53%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $60m (1%) to $9,528m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $371m (4%) to $9,661m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $449m (19%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $72m (5%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $50m (2%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $31m (18%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $9m (3%) to $332m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $91m (24%) to $285m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015	Apr 2015
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
Total services debits			-5 776	-5 900	-5 857	-43	-1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-52	-95	-12	-83	-87
	Transport		-1 401	-1 436	-1 436	-	-
		Passenger(c)	-471	-483	-476	-7	-1
		Freight	-846	-870	-871	1	-
		Other(b)	-77	-76	-79	3	4
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-7	-6	-9	3	50
	Travel		-2 377	-2 414	-2 453	39	2
	Other services(e)		-1 945	-1 955	-1 956	1	-
Tourism related service debits(f)			-2 848	-2 898	-2 929	31	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, imports of services debits rose $22m to $5,830m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of services debits fell $43m (1%) to $5,857m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $83m (87%).

Partly offsetting this fall was travel, up $39m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of tourism related service debits rose $31m (1%) to $2,929m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Nov 2014	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	Feb 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2015
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	1	20	-12	-7	17	-7
	Unit value	-2	5	-3	4	-12	-14
Fines
	Quantity	-8	9	-9	-1	2	-2
	Unit value	-5	-	-	-2	-9	-10
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	7	-11	-1	-14	30	-18
	Unit value	1	5	3	2	p7	p-3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-13	33	-17	-21	24	-18
	Unit value	1	6	3	3	p4	p-1
Thermal
	Quantity	3	13	-13	-7	9	-15
	Unit value	3	5	-3	5	1	-4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (Customs and Border Protection). At the time of initial reporting to Customs and Border Protection, the final prices at which transactions take place are not known for iron ore and coal. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Customs and Border Protection. For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Customs and Border Protection. When additional information on quantity and/or unit price for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Iron ore adjustments are applied on an international merchandise trade basis at the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC) level. Negative adjustments of $30m, $35m and $50m have been applied to iron ore lump in February, March and April 2015 respectively. Negative adjustments of $40m, $115m and $215m have been applied to iron ore fines in February, March and April 2015 respectively. When actual final transaction prices become available estimates are replaced with these data.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Customs and Border Protection and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between March and April 2015 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $214m (20%), with quantities down 7% and unit values down 14%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $83m (37%), with quantities down 32% and unit values down 8%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $82m (11%), with quantities up 3% and unit values down 14%
• Taiwan fell $53m (59%), with quantities down 47% and unit values down 22%.

Iron ore fines, down $344m (12%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 10%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $218m (9%), with unit values down 9%
• the Republic of Korea fell $97m (38%), with quantities down 26% and unit values down 16%
• Taiwan fell $37m (58%), with quantities down 52% and unit values down 13%.

Hard coking coal, down $327m (20%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• India fell $98m (25%), with quantities down 20% and unit values down 6%
• the Republic of Korea fell $62m (37%), with quantities down 39% and unit values up 2%
• the Netherlands fell $51m (44%), with quantities down 37% and unit values down 10%
• Poland fell $48m (100%), with quantities down 100%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $33m (10%), with quantities down 9% and unit values down 2%.

Semi-soft coal, down $119m (19%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 1%. Exports to:

• India fell $35m (32%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $33m (27%), with quantities down 30% and unit values up 4%
• Taiwan fell $14m (30%), with quantities down 31% and unit values up 2%.

Thermal coal, down $273m (19%), with quantities down 15% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $144m (23%), with quantities down 20% and unit values down 4%
• the Republic of Korea fell $107m (43%), with quantities down 40% and unit values down 5%.