5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Jun 2009
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/09/2009
Page tools:
 Print Page
 Print All
| ||
|
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
In seasonally adjusted current price terms, the current account deficit rose $7,001m to $13,347m between the March quarter 2009 and June quarter 2009 where:
Goods and Services The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services at current prices was a surplus of $1,479m, a decrease of $1,447m (49%) on the March quarter 2009 surplus. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,667m, a turnaround of $5,934m on the March quarter 2009 surplus where:
The turnaround in the goods surplus resulted from the decrease in goods credits (exports), down $11,156m (19%) exceeding the decrease in goods debits (imports), down $4,873m (9%). Contributing to the decrease in goods credits were:
Contributing to the decrease in goods debits were:
Partly offsetting these decreases was consumption goods, up $456m (3%). The surplus on services of $219m was a turnaround of $351m on the March quarter 2009 deficit of $132m. This resulted from the increase in services credits, up $354m (3%) exceeding the increase in services debits, up $3m. In seasonally adjusted volume terms, the deficit on goods and services was $2,570m, an increase of $683m (36%) on the $1,887m deficit recorded in the March quarter 2009. The net deficit on goods fell $199m (8%) to $2,287m. Goods credits rose $288m (1%) and goods debits rose $89m. The net services balance was a deficit of $283m, a turnaround of $882m on the surplus of $599m in the March quarter 2009. Preliminary analysis included in the June 2009 issue of International Trade in Goods and Services (cat. no. 5368.0) stated that goods debits volumes in seasonally adjusted terms decreased about 1.9% during June quarter 2009, the implicit price deflator fell 7.2% and in original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 6.1% and the implicit price deflator fell 7.6%. Further process of June quarter data resulted in these initial estimates being revised with volumes increasing 0.2% and the implicit price deflator falling 9.1% in seasonally adjusted terms while in original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 8.1% and the implicit price deflator fell 9.6%. The increase of $683m in the deficit on goods and services in volume terms is expected to detract 0.2 percentage points from growth in the June quarter 2009 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the March quarter 2009. Goods Credits The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices fell $5,834m (10%) to $51,853m in the June quarter 2009. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits fell $11,156m (19%) to $47,602m. Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $706m (9%) to $7,156m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 10%. All components contributed to this fall in rural goods, with the largest decreases in:
Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $8,061m (18%) to $36,394m, with volumes up 4% and prices down 21%. All components contributed to this fall in rural goods, with the largest decreases in:
Exports of other goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $2,390m (37%) to $4,052m. The main contributor to this decrease was the non-monetary gold component, down $2,309m (40%), with volumes down 31% and prices down 13%. Goods Debits The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices fell $3,799m (7%) to $50,601m in the June quarter 2009. In seasonally adjusted current price terms, goods debits fell $4,873m (9%) to $49,487m. Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $456m (3%) to $15,285m, with volumes up 11% and prices down 7%. The largest increases were in:
Partly offsetting these increases was the textiles, clothing and footwear component, down $122m (6%), with volumes up 6% and prices down 11%. Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $1,950m (15%) to $11,415m, with volumes down 6% and prices down 9%. All components contributed to this fall in capital goods with the largest decreases in:
Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $1,300m (6%) to $20,407m, with volumes up 2% and prices down 8%. The largest decreases were in:
Partly offsetting these decreases were:
Imports of other goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $2,079m (47%) to $2,380m. The largest decreases were in the non-monetary gold component, down $1,902m (51%), with volumes down 43% and prices down 14%, and the goods for processing component, down $193m (53%), with volumes down 45% and prices down 14%. Services The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a surplus of $226m, a turnaround of $587m on the revised March quarter 2009 deficit of $361m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services recorded a surplus of $219m, a turnaround of $351m on the revised March quarter 2009 deficit of $132m. Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $354m (3%) to $13,862m, with volumes up 2% and prices up 1%. The largest increases were in:
Partly offsetting these increases was the transportation services component, down $26m (1%), with volumes down 1%. Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $3m to $13,643m, with volumes up 10% and prices down 9%. The largest increases were in:
Partly offsetting these increases was the transportation services component, down $321m (9%), with volumes down 3% and prices down 6%. Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $226m (3%) to $9,049m, and tourism related services debits rose $196m (3%) to $7,095m. IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR* In seasonally adjusted terms, the implicit price deflator (IPD) for total goods and services credits fell 15.8%. In original terms, it decreased 16.2% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services credits fell 16.3%. In original terms, the IPD for goods credits fell 20.2% and the IPD for services credits rose 0.5%. The total goods and services debits IPD fell 9.1% in seasonally adjusted terms. In original terms, it fell 9.4% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods and services debits fell 8.1%. In original terms, the IPD for goods debits fell 9.6% and the IPD for services debits fell 8.8%. Relationship to IPI and EPI* In original terms, the implicit price deflator (IPD) for total goods credits fell 20.2% while the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports fell 19.9%. The export price index (EPI) fell 20.6% during the June quarter 2009. In original terms, the implicit price deflator for total goods debits fell 9.6% while the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports fell 8.1%. The import price index (IPI) fell 6.4% during the June quarter 2009. Terms of Trade* Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade fell 7.4% to 101.7, with a decrease of 15.8% in the IPD for goods and services credits and a decrease of 9.1% in the goods and services debits IPD. The trend estimate of the terms of trade decreased 6.9% to 104.0. * On this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. Income The trend estimate of the net income deficit increased $399m (4%) to $11,185m in the June quarter 2009. In seasonally adjusted terms the net income deficit increased $1,064m (10%) to $11,489m. Income debits increased $495m (2%) to $20,543m and income credits decreased $568m (6%) to $9,055m. The main contributors to the increase in income debits were a $441m (6%) increase in direct investment in Australia, income on equity and a $274m (3%) increase in portfolio investment liabilities, income on debt. The main contributor to the decrease in income credits was a decrease of $525m (10%) in direct investment abroad, income on equity, which was offset partially by a $163m (7%) increase in portfolio investment assets, income on debt. In original terms the net income deficit increased $696m (7%) to $10,792m in the June quarter 2009. Income debits increased $490m (2%) to $20,291m and income credits decreased $206m (2%) to $9,499m. Current Transfers In seasonally adjusted terms, the net current transfers deficit was $192m, an increase of $4m (2%) on the $188m deficit recorded in March quarter 2009. Current transfer credits fell $8m (1%) and current transfer debits fell $5m in the June quarter 2009. CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Capital Account In original terms, the capital account surplus was $458m, down $228m (33%) on the March quarter 2009 surplus. Capital transfer credits fell $493m (39%) to $778m and capital transfer debits fell $263m (45%) to $320m. Net acquisition/disposal of non-produced, nonfinancial assets was balanced. Financial Account The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $11.5b, with a $16.7b inflow of equity and a $5.3b outflow of debt. The financial account surplus increased by $6.8b from $4.7b in the March quarter 2009 to $11.5b in the June quarter 2009 in line with the increase in the current account deficit, which increased from $5.7b last quarter to $11.6b this quarter. Net debt issues rose from $16.2b in the March quarter 2009 to $42.0b in the June quarter 2009. The main contributor was a turnaround of $24.8b in net issues of money market liabilities by depository corporations. This was offset by an increase in other investment assets, currency and deposits from $4.5b in the March quarter 2009 to $17.8b in the June quarter 2009, and an increase in reserve assets from $1.8b in the March quarter 2009 to $13.0b in the June quarter 2009. Direct investment in Australia recorded an inflow of $9.8b in the June quarter 2009, an increase of $3.0b on the March quarter 2009 inflow of $6.7b. Australia's direct investment abroad recorded an outflow of $12.4b, a decrease of $1.1b on the previous quarter's outflow of $13.6b. In net terms, direct investment recorded an outflow of $2.7b in the June quarter 2009, a decrease of $4.2b on the outflow of $6.8b in the March quarter 2009. Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $37.8b, an increase of $1.5b on the inflow of $36.3b in the March quarter 2009. This was driven by a net inflow of $42.0b in portfolio investment debt securities liabilities. Other investment recorded a net outflow of $10.7b, a decrease of $13.7b on the net outflow of $24.4b in the previous quarter. Reserve assets recorded a net outflow of $13.0b, an increase of $11.1b on the previous quarter's net outflow of $1.8b. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT Australia's net international investment position at 30 June 2009 was a net foreign liability of $725.9b, down $7.5b (1%) on 31 March 2009. The decrease consisted of:
During the June quarter 2009 Australia's net foreign equity liability increased $35.0b (61%) to $92.7b. The increase was due to exchange rate changes of $46.9b and net transactions of $16.7b, partially offset by price changes of -$28.6b. Australia's net foreign debt liability decreased $42.5b (6%) to $633.2b. The decrease was due to exchange rate changes of -$30.1b, price changes of -$7.1b and net transactions of -$5.3b. FINANCIAL YEAR: 2008-2009 SITUATION BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In original terms, the balance on current account for 2008-09 was a deficit of $38.4b, a 47% decrease on the deficit of $72.5b recorded for 2007-08. The balance on goods and services was a surplus of $5.8b, a turnaround of $29.4b on the deficit of $23.6b recorded in 2007-08. Goods credits increased $48.9b (27%) and goods debits increased $18.4b (9%). The 2008-09 services deficit of $2.4b was an increase of $1.2b on the deficit of $1.2b in 2007-08. The 2008-09 net income deficit decreased $5.0b (10%), with a decrease in income credits of $1.8b (4%) and a decrease in income debits of $6.8b (7%). The balance on financial account recorded a net inflow of $37.2b, with a net inflow on equity of $66.3b and a net outflow on debt of $29.1b. This result was down $31.0b on the net inflow of $68.1b recorded for the previous year as a result of:
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION Australia's net international investment position as at 30 June 2009 was a net foreign liability of $725.9b. This was up $50.0b (7%) on the position a year earlier as a result of:
During 2008-09, Australia's net foreign equity liability increased to $92.7b, up $33.5b (57%) on the previous financial year, with transactions of $66.3b and price changes of $11.2b partially offset by exchange rate changes of -$43.3b and other changes of -$0.7b. Net foreign debt liability rose to $633.2b, up $16.5b (3%) on the previous financial year, with exchange rate changes of $74.7b and other changes of $0.7b partially offset by price changes of -$29.9b and transactions of -$29.1b. At 30 June 2009, the ratio of Australia's net international investment position to GDP using the latest available GDP figure (for the year ended 31 March 2009 using current prices) was 60.6%. This compares with 59.7% one year ago and 52.9% one decade ago. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
|
|