MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2011 (475,600 movements) decreased 0.5% when compared with May 2011 (477,800 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.2% lower than in June 2010.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for June 2010 and June 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Indonesia (22.6%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (28.5%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - June 2011
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	May 11 to Jun 11	Jun 10 to Jun 11
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	96.6	94.6	93.6	-0.9	1.1
United States of America	37.0	35.0	36.3	-1.9	-4.6
Singapore	25.6	25.7	31.7	-0.6	0.4
China	42.2	44.4	28.3	0.5	9.4
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	48.1	49.8	25.3	-0.3	-8.4
Malaysia	20.2	20.4	17.2	0.8	9.4
Japan	24.8	24.8	16.1	-2.0	-28.5
Indonesia	12.3	11.9	13.2	1.5	22.6
Korea(c)	14.9	15.1	13.1	-1.3	-17.4
India	11.5	11.0	11.3	-1.8	1.8
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than June 2011.
2 The July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than June 2011.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2011 (656,700 movements) increased 1.4% when compared with May 2011 (647,600 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 10.9% higher than in June 2010.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during June 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2010 and June 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Thailand (32.1%). The next highest percentage increase was for the United States of America (24.8%) followed by Italy (21.2%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - June 2011
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	May 11 to Jun 11	Jun 10 to Jun 11
Destination countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
Indonesia	73.5	73.2	83.2	1.2	21.0
United States of America	71.8	72.0	78.9	3.0	24.8
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	41.1	43.2	71.6	3.3	6.5
New Zealand	89.4	76.8	59.9	0.4	-0.6
Thailand	46.9	46.3	45.2	1.9	32.1
Fiji	29.4	28.7	30.5	3.1	12.1
China	32.0	31.4	27.3	2.0	11.0
Italy	13.0	13.1	25.7	4.5	21.2
Singapore	24.0	24.0	24.4	-0.3	10.7
France	11.0	10.9	20.1	3.2	15.7
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than June 2011.
2 The July 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than June 2011.

The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 11,700 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during June 2011, an increase of 11.6% compared with June 2010 (10,480 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19.9%), followed by people born in China (12.8%), India (8.4%) and UK, CIs & IOM (8.2%).

There were 5,810 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during June 2011, a decrease of 0.8% compared with June 2010 (5,850 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.