FEATURE ARTICLE: SHORT-TERM MOVEMENTS, CANADA


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term visitor arrivals series for Canada. While there have been monthly fluctuations, the trend estimate has steadily increased over the ten year period to April 2008. Currently, the number of movements in April 2008 (10,300 movements) is 9% higher than in April 2007 and 73% higher than in April 1998.

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending April 2008 a number of large variations were evident for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia from Canada. While providing specific reasons for all variations in travel from Canada is not possible, some variations can be associated with events occurring in Australia and others with general trends in international travel coinciding with world events. For example, the September 2000 increase in short-term visitor arrivals could be associated with the Olympic Games being held in Sydney, Australia and the more recent increase in September 2007 could be associated with the rise in value of the Canadian dollar above the USA dollar for the first time in 30 years.

Additionally, during the ten year period there were a number of world events that may have contributed to a decrease in travel to Australia from Canada. Examples include, the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States of America, the anticipation and commencement of hostilities in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS in Asia (both commencing in early 2003).

In original terms, in the year ended April 2008 short-term visitor arrivals from Canada represented 2.1% (119,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. This proportion was slightly higher than in the previous 12 months ended April 2007 (2.0%, or 110,300 movements) and in the 12 months ended April 1998 (1.6%, or 68,200 movements).

In the year ended April 2008, the highest proportion of short-term visitor arrivals from Canada stated holiday (47%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (28%) and business (11%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (49%), visiting friends and relatives (21%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitors from Canada was 44 years (39 years for all short-term visitor arrivals), and the median duration of stay was 17 days (10 days for all short-term visitor arrivals).

New South Wales (48%), Queensland (21%), Victoria (16%) and Western Australia (7%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitor arrivals from Canada in the year ended April 2008. The main destinations for all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (27%), Victoria (18%) and Western Australia (10%).


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Trend estimates provide the best method to analyse the underlying direction of the short-term resident departures series for Canada. During the ten year period ending April 2008 the trend estimate series has increased strongly with the number of movements more than doubling in the ten year period. The high point in the series was March 2008 (8,400 movements) and the low points were in April and June 1998 (4,000 movements).

The seasonally adjusted series allows for the analysis of irregular impacts on the series. The graph below shows that over the ten years ending April 2008 a number of large variations were evident for short-term resident departures of Australian residents to Canada. As with the short-term visitor arrivals seasonally adjusted series, specific reasons for the variations in movements are not clear but some are possibly associated with the world events that influenced international travel, e.g. the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States of America, the anticipation and commencement of hostilities in Iraq and the outbreak of SARS in Asia (both commencing in early 2003).

In original terms, in the year ended April 2008 short-term resident departures to Canada represented 1.7% (96,600 movements) of all short-term resident departures from Australia. The proportion for the previous 12 months ended April 2007 was slightly higher (1.8%, or 92,800 movements) and the same for the 12 months ended April 1998 (1.7%, or 50,800 movements).

In the year ended April 2008, the highest proportion of short-term resident departures to Canada stated holiday (54%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (23%) and business (10%). In comparison the main reasons for journey for all short-term residents departing Australia were holiday (50%), visiting friends and relatives (24%) and business (14%). The median age of short-term resident departures to Canada was 45 years (42 years for all short-term resident departures), and the median duration of stay was 24 days (15 days for all short-term resident departures).