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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

The following graphs are provided to illustrate variations in the seasonally adjusted and trend series for selected countries. These graphs cover the ten-year period December 2003 to December 2013.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for France shows steady growth from 2004 to 2009 with monthly fluctuations. However, in April 2010, the seasonally adjusted series fell suddenly at the time of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, which closed major airports in Europe for one week. A large decrease has been recorded in seasonally adjusted short-term visitor arrivals from New Zealand in September 2011, due to New Zealanders staying home for the Rugby World Cup held there. The seasonally adjusted series in the third graph shows a large increase in short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom in June 2013. This was caused by the British and Irish Lions Rugby Union tour of Australia.

FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)



NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)



UNITED KINGDOM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)

Analysis of short-term resident departures to Egypt shows the introduction of a break to the series in February 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to ongoing political instability in the region. Multiple trend breaks have been applied to the graph of resident departures to Indonesia due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of October 2005 then again in December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. The graph for Mexico shows a sharp increase in seasonally adjusted resident-departures in July 2013, caused by the Catholic World Youth day. Though the conference was held in Brazil, many Australian pilgrims went to other countries before and after the event.

Breaks in the series for Mexico and Indonesia have been inserted at April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. Such initiatives included the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009 and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. These impacts were not apparent when analysing departures to some countries, including Egypt. Consequently a trend break correction was not necessary for this series. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanatory Notes Paragraph 26.

EGYPT, Short-term Resident Departures(a)

INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures(a)

MEXICO, Short-term Resident Departures(a)