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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)
NEW ZEALAND, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)
UNITED KINGDOM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Sometimes there are abrupt and sustained changes in the underlying behaviour of short-term movement series, termed ‘trend breaks’. Given that these occasions can distort trend estimates, the ABS takes such breaks into account when smoothing seasonally adjusted series.
Analysis of short-term resident departures to Egypt shows the introduction of a break to the series in February 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to ongoing political instability in the region. Multiple trend breaks have been applied to the graph of resident departures to Indonesia due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of October 2005 then again in December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. The graph for Mexico shows a sharp increase in seasonally adjusted resident-departures in July 2013, caused by the Catholic World Youth day. Though the conference was held in Brazil, many Australian pilgrims went to other countries before and after the event.
Breaks in the series for Mexico and Indonesia have been inserted at April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. Such initiatives included the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009 and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. These impacts were not apparent when analysing departures to some countries, including Egypt. Consequently a trend break correction was not necessary for this series. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanatory Notes Paragraph 26.
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