APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

The following graphs are provided to illustrate variations in the seasonally adjusted and trend series for selected countries. These graphs cover the ten year period December 2002 to December 2012.


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for China shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003. The graph for France shows steady growth from 2004 to 2009 with monthly fluctuations. However, in April 2010, the seasonally adjusted series falls dramatically at the time of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, which closed major airports in Europe for one week. The graph for New Zealand shows the large decrease in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2011, due to New Zealanders staying home for the Rugby World Cup being held in New Zealand.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

Analysis of short-term resident departures for Japan, as seen below, shows a trend break in the series due to the major earthquake and tsunami in March 2011 and subsequent radiation exposure incidents. For Indonesia, the graph shows the introduction of breaks in series due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the Bali bombings of 12 October 2002 and then again in December 2003 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the first bombings. Further breaks were inserted in October 2005 due to the reduced level of travel experienced after the subsequent Bali bombings of 1 October 2005, then again in December 2006 as movements returned to levels closer to those recorded prior to the second bombings. The graph for South Africa shows, in the seasonally adjusted and trend series, the effect of South Africa hosting the 2012 FIFA World Cup from 11 June to 11 July 2010.

Breaks in series for the following graphs have been inserted from April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. For example, the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009, and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanation Notes Paragraph 25.