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WHAT IF... INTRODUCTION The previous sections of this publication present projected numbers of households, families and persons in different living arrangements, using three assumptions about changes in living arrangements and a single assumption about the future population of Australia (that is, the Series B population projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0)). Naturally the size and age/sex structure of this future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements. This section briefly discusses the results of using two other projections of the population, the Series A and C projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2012 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0) as the assumption about the future population of Australia (see table 9.1). These two series result in the largest and smallest projected populations, respectively, for Australia. The population of Australia is projected to grow between 2011 and 2036 in all three series, but at differing rates for each series. Series A (high series) results in a population of 34.4 million people in 2036, an increase of 54% overall from 2011. This population is 2.0 million more than the projected number of people in Series B (32.4 million). Series C (low series) results in a population of 30.7 million people in 2036, an increase of 38% overall from 2011. This is 1.7 million people fewer than the Series B projection. 9.1 Population Projections, assumptions used
HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS Using the Series B projection as the assumption about the future population of Australia results in a projection of between 12.6 and 12.7 million households in Australia in 2036. This is an increase of between 4.2 and 4.3 million households. If instead the Series A projection were used as the future population, the number of households would be an additional 4% higher than using Series B, increasing by between 4.7 and 4.8 million households to reach between 13.1 and 13.2 million households in 2036. If the Series C projection were used, the number would be 3% lower than using Series B, increasing by between 3.8 and 4.0 million households to reach between 12.2 and 12.4 million households. Similar results are apparent for all household types, with higher numbers of family, group and lone person households being projected using the Series A population and fewer numbers being projected using the Series C population. The use of different population projection series (A, B or C) has relatively little impact on the proportion of households in each household type. For example, family households make up 69% of all households for Series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is therefore primarily on the number of each type of household, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.
FAMILY PROJECTIONS Using the Series B projection as the future population, the number of families in Australia is projected to reach between 8.9 and 9.1 million in 2036. Similarly to the projected number of households, if the Series A population is used instead of Series B, higher numbers of families are projected (between 9.3 and 9.4 million in 2036), while if Series C is used, fewer families are projected (between 8.7 and 8.8 million). Similar results are also apparent for all family types. As with household projections, the impact of using series A or C rather than series B is seen in the size of the numerical increase for each family type, rather than the proportion of each family type relative to the population. 9.5 Projected number of families, using different population projections
The different age structures of the population projection series A, B and C result in differences in the proportion of the projected population in each type of living arrangement. 9.6 Projected living arrangement proportions, using different population projections (series II)
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