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MAIN FEATURES COMMENTARY
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).
The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2014 was higher from net overseas migration (58%) than from natural increase (42%).
The preliminary estimated natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2014 was 152,200 people, a decrease of 6.0%, or 9,800 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2013 (162,000 people).
The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 30 June 2014 (300,900 births) decreased by 10,300 births from the year ended 30 June 2013 (311,100 births).
The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 30 June 2014 (148,700 deaths) remained fairly stable, decreasing by 500 deaths from the year ended 30 June 2013 (149,200 deaths).
Net Overseas Migration
For the year ended 30 June 2014, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 212,700 people. This was 9.7% (23,000 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 30 June 2013 (235,700 people).
NOM arrivals decreased by 2.1% (10,300 people) between the years ended 30 June 2013 (502,800 people) and 30 June 2014 (492,400 people).
NOM departures increased by 4.7% (12,600 people) between the years ended 30 June 2013 (267,100 people) and 30 June 2014 (279,700 people).
The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the June quarter 2014 (33,400 people) was 36.1% (18,800 people) lower than the estimate for the June quarter 2013 (52,200 people).
STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH
The estimated resident population for each state and territory at 30 June 2014 was as follows:
All states and territories recorded positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2014. Western Australia continued to record the fastest growth rate of all states and territories at 2.2%. Tasmania recorded the slowest growth rate at 0.3%.
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.
Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2014, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.
For the year ended 30 June 2014, natural increase was the major component of population change in Queensland, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Net overseas migration was the major component of population change in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. A net interstate migration loss was the highest contributor to population change in the Northern Territory. Net interstate migration losses were also recorded in all states and territories except for Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.
Compared to the previous year, the total number of births registered for the year ended 30 June 2014 decreased for most of the states and territories. The largest percentage decrease was recorded in New South Wales, decreasing by 7.0% (7,000 births - partly due to a registration lag - see Explanatory note 11). This was followed by Queensland (down 2.5%) and South Australia (down 2.4%). The Australian Capital Territory recorded the highest increase in births at 2.9% more than the previous year. Small increases were recorded in the Northern Territory (0.9%) and Western Australia (0.5%). For more information, see table 13.
Nationally, the total number of deaths decreased 0.3% (500 people) between the years ending June 2013 and June 2014. Queensland recorded the largest decrease at 2.1% (600 people), followed by South Australia and New South Wales at 1.2% and 0.1% respectively. The largest percentage increase was recorded in the Northern Territory, increasing by 7.3% (80 deaths), followed by the Australian Capital Territory (up 1.5%) and Western Australia (up 1.1%). For more information, see table 14.
Preliminary estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).
Net Overseas Migration
All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ending 30 June 2014. However, half of the states and territories recorded decreases in NOM when compared with the previous year. The largest percentage decrease in NOM was recorded in the Northern Territory at 39.6% (2,000 people). This was closely followed by Western Australia, which decreased by 37.5% (19,400 people), and the Australian Capital Territory, which decreased by 24.9% (700 people). The largest increase in NOM was recorded in New South Wales, which increased by 6,300 people (9.4%). For more information, see table 16.
Compared with the previous year ended 30 June 2013, half of the states and territories recorded decreases in NOM arrivals. Western Australia recorded the largest percentage and numerical decrease at 17.2% (14,700 people), followed by the Northern Territory at 12.3% (1,100 people) and Queensland at 7.4% (6,900 people). The largest increase was recorded by New South Wales at 4.5% (7,200 people), followed by Victoria and South Australia, both at 3.9% (4,700 people and 900 people respectively). For more information, see table 16.
Compared with the previous year ended 30 June 2013, all states and territories recorded increases in NOM departures. The largest percentage increase was recorded for the Northern Territory at 24.0% (890 people), followed by Western Australia at 13.5% (4,600 people) and South Australia at 6.8% (780 people). For more information, see table 16.
Net Interstate Migration
Victoria recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 30 June 2014 (8,800 people), followed by Queensland (5,800 people) and Western Australia (1,000 people). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (6,900 people), the Northern Territory (3,300 people), South Australia (3,000 people) and Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory (both 1,200 people). For more information, see table 17.
For the 12 months ended 30 June 2014, Australia's population growth rate of 1.6% was above that of the world at 1.1%. Australia is growing at a faster rate than New Zealand and Canada (both 1.0%), the United States of America (0.8%), and the United Kingdom (0.6%). Some countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were the Philippines (1.7%), Singapore (1.9%) and Papua New Guinea (2.1%). According to figures from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Australia's population ranked 51st in 2014 (holding the same rank as in 2013) and is projected to rank 55th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.62 billion people compared with 1.39 billion in China.
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