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2001 MPS REDESIGN
The introduction of ARIA has replaced sampled and sparse area types in the stratification, which had been based on SLA level population density. This will have the advantage of keeping more remote towns and their surrounding district together in the same stratum. In addition, the use of ARIA also helps ensure that small islands off the north coast of Australia are treated as very remote rather than like larger towns because of their high density.
A substantial increase in computing power has made it possible to produce a variance model based on fifty different designs, considering all possible samples under each design and emulating the block formation and selection practices used in the MPS. This has resulted in variance models with a high level of fit. In addition variance models were obtained for the first time for smaller area types such as the sampled, sparse and indigenous area types.
The resulting variance model was further adjusted to reflect actual LFS accuracy levels for the middle of the design period. These adjustments allowed for the following differences between Census and MPS:
The Cost Model
The cost model was fitted to detailed cost data obtained in May 1999 which gave a more precise split by cost components and was the first available data to comprehensively represent the cost dynamics under the telephone interviewing approach. The cost model was subsequently adjusted for monthly seasonal changes and to reflect those Payment To Agents (PTA) costs not captured electronically, such as training, Commonwealth vehicles, superannuation and long service leave.
An optimisation method for 2001 has been developed to minimise Australian level variances in order to meet a specified cost value and specified relativities in state accuracy levels. This is a departure from previous allocations in which state accuracies were controlled more indirectly by adjusting state sampling fractions. The new approach is transparent in that the desired relativities in state accuracy requirements are specified as input to the optimisation. The method also ensures equal probability sampling within state.
A preliminary sample optimisation has been produced based on projected PTA expenditure for the 2001 design period which delivers slightly lower relative standard errors for employment and unemployment than those that were achieved during 1996. However, due to the increased emphasis on the PTA budget for this design, the optimisation will not be finalised until after the October Management Meeting where a decision will be made on the final budgetary allocation for the 2001 design MPS PTA expenses.
For more details, please contact Daniel Elazar in CO on (02) 6252 6962.
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