3238.0 - Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001 to 2026 Quality Declaration 
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Contents >> Assumptions >> Interstate migration assumption

INTERSTATE MIGRATION ASSUMPTION

One assumption has been made for future net internal migration of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people:

  • constant levels of migration as observed in the 2011 Census of Population and Housing based on address 5 years ago.


Trends in interstate migration

The 2011 Census 'place of usual residence five years ago' question showed that 21,345 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence between 2006 and 2011. Between 2001 and 2006, 18,445 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence. The previous 2001 Census showed that 18,671 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people changed their state or territory of usual residence between 1996 and 2001.

This measure was unable to account for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children under five years of age on Census Night, people whose place of usual residence five years ago was overseas, and people whose state or territory of usual residence five years ago was not recorded. In addition, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people overseas on Census Night, were not counted in the Census.

2.17 INTERSTATE ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES(a) - 2006-2011

State/territory of arrival
STATE/TERRITORY OF DEPARTURE
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
Total departures(b)

NSW
. .
1 154
3 647
269
478
163
271
581
6 589
Vic.
739
. .
578
204
257
120
123
40
2 061
Qld
2 436
694
. .
296
683
278
660
177
5 224
SA
231
230
272
. .
219
51
268
17
1 288
WA
316
329
505
225
. .
95
427
40
1 940
Tas.
144
175
283
47
124
. .
37
19
829
NT
275
261
956
550
456
64
. .
58
2 620
ACT
443
50
194
22
14
8
44
. .
782
Total arrivals(b)
4 592
2 893
6 435
1 613
2 235
779
1 830
932
21 345
Net movements
-1 997
832
1 211
325
295
-50
-790
150
. .

. . not applicable
(a) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children under five years of age on Census Nights were excluded, as were people whose place of usual residence five years ago was overseas, and people whose state or territory of usual residence five years ago was not recorded.
(b) Includes Other Territories.
Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2011 (cat. no. 2901.0).



Method used to produce interstate migration assumption

State or territory of usual residence on Census Night was cross-tabulated with state or territory of usual residence five years ago to obtain net interstate migration for each state and territory for 2006-2011 (table 2.17).

These figures are affected by a number of data quality issues, including Census net undercount and records for which Indigenous status was not stated. To account for these, net interstate migration estimates were adjusted by a proportion calculated by dividing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population estimates by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Census counts, for each state and terrritory.

The adjusted net interstate migration estimates were then divided by five to obtain annual movements, which were assumed to remain constant over the projection period (table 2.18). In addition, they were used as constraints on migration assumptions for Indigenous Regions and Remoteness Areas, that is, migration levels were not allowed to exceed the state totals.


Age/sex profile of interstate migration

The age/sex profile of interstate migration was derived from the 'place of usual residence one year ago' question from the 2011 Census. Arrival and departure rates for the states and territories were calculated by single year of age and sex and adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of projected populations were plausible. All age/sex arrival and departure disaggregations were constrained by the net internal migration assumption at the state/territory level.

2.18 ASSUMED NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION

NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
persons
persons
persons
persons
persons
persons
persons
persons

Annual net migration
-503
220
297
55
71
-9
-164
33

Note: Totals and components may not be consistent within and between tables due to introduced random error to protect confidentiality of Census respondents - see Census Dictionary, 2011 (cat. no. 2901.0).



Indigenous Regions migration

Annual net migration estimates for each IREG were calculated in the same way as for the states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 15-year projection period (table 2.19).

Arrival and departure rates were calculated for each IREG by single year of age and sex. These were then constrained to the state or territory net migration levels and were assumed to remain constant over the projection period. Further adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure the age/sex profiles of the projected populations of IREGs were plausible.

2.19 Assumed net internal migration, Indigenous Regions

Annual net migration
persons

Dubbo
-64
North-Eastern NSW
-90
North-Western NSW
-102
NSW Central and North Coast
131
Riverina - Orange
-51
South-Eastern NSW
21
Sydney - Wollongong
-348
Melbourne
71
Victoria exc. Melbourne
149
Brisbane
256
Cairns - Atherton
305
Cape York
-147
Mount Isa
-115
Rockhampton
143
Toowoomba - Roma
-24
Torres Strait
-179
Townsville - Mackay
58
Adelaide
69
Port Augusta
-17
Port Lincoln - Ceduna
3
Broome
7
Geraldton
-76
Kalgoorlie
26
Kununurra
-67
Perth
36
South Hedland
91
South-Western WA
95
West Kimberley
-41
Tasmania
-9
Alice Springs
62
Apatula
-89
Darwin
-68
Jabiru - Tiwi
72
Katherine
-209
Nhulunbuy
100
Tennant Creek
-32
Australian Capital Territory
33




Remoteness Areas migration

Annual net migration estimates for each Remoteness Area were calculated in the same way as for the states and territories, and were assumed to remain constant over the 15-year projection period (table 2.20).

Arrival and departure rates were calculated for each Remoteness Area by single year of age and sex and were assumed to remain constant over the projection period. Further adjustments were made where appropriate to ensure that the age/sex profiles of the projected populations of Remoteness Areas were plausible.

2.20 Assumed net internal migration, Remoteness Areas

Annual net migration
persons

Major Cities
268
Inner and Outer Regional
630
Remote and Very Remote
-898







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