6203.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Feb 2003
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 28/03/2003  Ceased
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1 A new sample for the Labour Force Survey has been phased in over the period November 2002 to June 2003. For information about the sample design see Information Paper: Labour Force Survey Sample Design (cat. no. 6269.0).

ESTIMATION PROCEDURE

2 The labour force estimates are derived from the population survey by use of a complex ratio estimation procedure, which ensures that the survey estimates conform to an independently estimated distribution of the population by age and sex, rather than to the age and sex distribution within the sample itself.

RELIABILITY OF THE ESTIMATES

3 Two types of error are possible in an estimate based on a sample survey: sampling error and non-sampling error. The sampling error is a measure of the variability that occurs by chance because a sample, rather than the entire population, is surveyed. Since the estimates in this publication are based on information obtained from occupants of a sample of dwellings they, and the movements derived from them, are subject to sampling variability; that is, they may differ from the estimates that would have been produced if all dwellings had been included in the surveys. One measure of the likely difference is given by the standard error, which indicates the extent to which an estimate might have varied by chance because only a sample of dwellings was included. There are about two chances in three that the estimate that would have been obtained if all dwellings had been included will differ by less than one standard error from a sample estimate, and about nineteen chances in twenty that the difference will be less than two standard errors. Another measure of sampling variability is the relative standard error which is obtained by expressing the standard error as a percentage of the estimate to which it refers. The relative standard error is a useful measure in that it provides an immediate indication of the percentage errors likely to have occurred due to sampling, and thus avoids the need to refer also to the size of the estimate.

4 The imprecision due to sampling variability, which is measured by the standard error, should not be confused with inaccuracies that may occur because of imperfections in reporting by respondents, errors made in collection such as in recording and coding data, and errors made in processing the data. Inaccuracies of this kind are referred to as the non-sampling error and they may occur in any enumeration, whether it be a full count or a sample. It is not possible to quantify non-sampling error, but every effort is made to reduce it to a minimum by careful design of questionnaires, intensive training and supervision of interviewers and efficient operating procedures. For the examples in paragraph 9 it is assumed to be zero. In practice, the potential for non-sampling error adds to the uncertainty of the estimates caused by sampling variability.

5 Space does not allow for the separate indication of the standard errors of all estimates in this publication. Standard errors of estimates for the latest month and of estimates of movements since the previous month are shown in table 1. Standard errors of other estimates and other monthly movements should be determined by using tables A and B.

6 The size of the standard error increases with the level of the estimate, so that the larger the estimate the larger is the standard error. However, it should be noted that the larger the sample estimate the smaller will be the standard error in percentage terms. Thus, larger sample estimates will be relatively more reliable than smaller estimates.

7 As the standard errors in table A show, the smaller the estimate the higher is the relative standard error. Very small estimates are subject to such high standard errors (relative to the size of the estimate) as to detract seriously from their value for most reasonable uses. In the tables in this publication, only estimates with relative standard errors of 25% or less, and percentages based on such estimates, are considered sufficiently reliable for most purposes. However, estimates and percentages with larger relative standard errors have been included and are preceded by an asterisk (e.g. *3.4) to indicate they are subject to high standard errors and should be used with caution.

8 The movement in the level of an estimate is also subject to sampling variability. The standard error of the movement depends on the levels of the estimates from which the movement is obtained rather than the size of the movement. An indication of the magnitude of standard errors of monthly movements is given in table B. The estimates of standard error of monthly movements apply only to estimates of movements between two consecutive months. Movements between corresponding months of consecutive quarters (quarterly movements), corresponding months of consecutive years (annual movements) and other non-consecutive months, will generally be subject to somewhat greater sampling variability than is indicated in table B. Standard errors of quarterly movements can be obtained by multiplying the figures in table A by 1.04. Standard errors of all six monthly movements can be obtained by multiplying the figures in table A by 1.28. When using table A or table B to calculate standard errors of movements, refer to the larger of the two estimates from which the movement is derived.

9 Examples of the calculation and use of standard errors are given below:

• Consider an estimate for Australia of 700,000 employed persons aged 15–19 years. By referring to table A, for an estimate of 700,000 and the column for Australia, a standard error of 9,800 is obtained (after applying linear interpolation and rounding). There are about two chances in three that the true value (the number that would have been obtained if the whole population had been included in the survey) is within the range 690,200 to 709,800. There are about nineteen chances in twenty that the true value is in the range 680,400 to 719,600.

• Consider estimates for females employed part time in Australia of 1,890,000 in one month and 1,900,000 in the next month. This represents an upward movement of 10,000. By referring to table B for the larger estimate of 1,900,000, a movement standard error of 10,300 is obtained (after applying linear interpolation and rounding). Therefore, there are about two chances in three that the true movement is in the range -300 to +20,300 and about nineteen chances in twenty that the true movement is in the range –10,600 to +30,600.

10 The relative standard errors of estimates of aggregate hours worked, average hours worked, average duration of unemployment, and median duration of unemployment are obtained by first finding the relative standard error of the estimate of the total number of persons contributing to the estimate (see table A) and then multiplying the figure so obtained by the following relevant factors:
• aggregate hours worked: 1.4;
• average hours worked: 0.9;
• average duration of unemployment: 1.5; and
• median duration of unemployment: 1.7.

The levels at which these and other labour force estimates have a relative standard error of 25% are shown in table C.

11 The following is an example of the calculation of standard errors where the use of a factor is required:
• Consider a median duration of unemployment for Australia of 30 weeks, with an estimate of 1,000,000 persons unemployed. Table A gives the standard error as 11,350 which is 1.1% as a relative standard error. The factor of 1.7 (see paragraph 10) is applied to the relative standard error of 1.1% to obtain 1.9%. Therefore the standard error for the median duration of unemployment is 1.9% of 30 weeks, i.e. about half of one week. So there are two chances in three that the median duration of unemployment is between 29.5 and 30.5 weeks, and about nineteen chances in twenty that it is between 29 and 31 weeks.

12 Proportions and percentages (for example, unemployment rates) formed from the ratio of two estimates are also subject to sampling error. The size of the error depends on the accuracy of both the numerator and denominator. The formula for the relative standard error (RSE) of a proportion or percentage is given below:

13 Standard errors contained in tables A and B are designed to provide an average standard error applicable for all monthly Labour Force Survey estimates. Analysis of the standard errors applicable to particular survey estimates has shown that the standard errors of estimates of employment are generally 5% lower than those shown in tables A and B, while standard errors for estimates of unemployment and persons not in the labour force are both approximately 4% higher than those shown in the tables.

 A. STANDARD ERRORS OF ESTIMATES FROM SEPTEMBER 1997(a) NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACT Aust. Size of estimate no. no. no. no. no. no. no. no. no. % 100 100 100 130 200 210 210 140 130 160 140 70.0 300 220 230 310 250 260 160 150 180 180 60.0 500 320 320 390 310 330 200 190 210 270 54.0 700 400 390 460 360 380 230 220 240 340 48.6 1,000 520 490 540 410 450 270 250 270 440 44.0 1,500 670 620 650 490 540 320 290 310 570 38.0 2,000 800 740 740 550 610 360 330 340 700 35.0 2,500 900 850 800 600 650 400 350 350 800 32.0 3,000 1,000 900 900 650 700 400 400 400 900 30.0 3,500 1,100 1,000 950 700 750 450 400 400 950 27.1 4,000 1,200 1,050 1,000 750 800 450 450 450 1,050 26.3 5,000 1,350 1,200 1,100 800 900 500 450 500 1,200 24.0 7,000 1,600 1,400 1,300 900 1,050 600 550 550 1,450 20.7 10,000 1,900 1,650 1,500 1,050 1,200 700 600 600 1,700 17.0 15,000 2,300 1,950 1,800 1,250 1,400 800 700 750 2,100 14.0 20,000 2,600 2,200 2,050 1,400 1,550 900 800 800 2,450 12.3 30,000 3,100 2,600 2,400 1,650 1,850 1,050 900 950 2,950 9.8 40,000 3,450 2,900 2,750 1,850 2,050 1,150 1,000 1,100 3,300 8.3 50,000 3,700 3,100 3,000 2,050 2,200 1,250 1,100 1,200 3,650 7.3 100,000 4,600 3,900 4,000 2,700 2,850 1,600 1,400 1,650 4,750 4.8 150,000 5,250 4,550 4,700 3,200 3,300 1,900 1,600 1,950 5,500 3.7 200,000 5,750 5,100 5,300 3,550 3,650 2,100 1,800 2,250 6,150 3.1 300,000 6,700 6,050 6,250 4,200 4,150 2,450 2,700 7,150 2.4 500,000 8,350 7,550 7,650 5,100 4,950 2,900 8,700 1.7 1,000,000 11,650 10,600 10,000 6,700 6,150 11,350 1.1 2,000,000 17,150 15,400 13,050 8,750 7,600 15,000 0.8 5,000,000 30,750 26,500 18,400 23,000 0.5 10,000,000 40,350 0.4 (a) For standard errors for earlier period, see previous issues of this publication.

 B. STANDARD ERRORS OF ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY MOVEMENTS FOR DECEMBER 2002 TO JANUARY 2003 ONWARDS (a) Size of larger estimate NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACT Aust. 100 100 90 100 310 200 330 210 270 130 110 130 400 300 490 400 380 240 300 150 130 140 460 500 580 480 450 280 360 180 160 170 550 700 650 530 500 320 400 200 180 190 630 1,000 730 600 570 360 450 220 210 210 710 1,500 840 690 660 420 520 260 240 240 820 2,000 920 760 730 460 570 280 270 270 910 2,500 1,000 820 780 500 610 310 300 290 980 3,000 1,060 880 840 530 650 330 320 310 1,050 4,000 1,170 970 920 590 720 360 360 340 1,160 5,000 1,260 1,040 1,000 630 770 390 390 360 1,260 7,000 1,410 1,170 1,120 710 860 440 440 400 1,420 10,000 1,590 1,320 1,270 810 970 500 500 450 1,610 15,000 1,820 1,520 1,460 930 1,110 570 590 520 1,860 20,000 2,010 1,670 1,610 1,030 1,220 630 660 570 2,060 30,000 2,300 1,920 1,860 1,190 1,390 730 770 650 2,380 50,000 2,740 2,290 2,220 1,420 1,650 870 930 760 2,850 70,000 3,060 2,560 2,490 1,600 1,840 980 1,060 850 3,210 100,000 3,460 2,890 2,820 1,810 2,070 1,100 1,210 960 3,650 150,000 3,960 3,320 3,240 2,080 2,360 1,270 1,410 1,090 4,210 200,000 4,370 3,670 3,580 2,300 2,600 1,400 1,580 1,200 4,670 300,000 5,000 4,210 4,120 2,660 2,970 1,610 1,370 5,390 500,000 5,950 5,010 4,920 3,180 3,520 1,930 6,470 1,000,000 7,510 6,340 6,260 4,050 4,420 8,270 2,000,000 9,490 8,030 7,960 5,160 5,550 10,580 5,000,000 12,920 10,970 10,930 14,660 10,000,000 18,750 (a) For standard errors for earlier periods, see previous issues of this publication.

 C. LEVELS AT WHICH LABOUR FORCE ESTIMATES HAVE A RELATIVE STANDARD ERROR OF 25%(a) FROM SEPTEMBER 1997(b) NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACT Aust. Estimates (c) of Aggregate hours worked 10,600 8,200 7,200 4,000 4,800 1,800 1,500 1,800 8,700 Average hours worked 4,600 3,800 3,700 2,000 2,400 800 700 1,000 3,500 Average duration of unemployment 10,400 9,600 7,300 4,100 5,000 1,800 1,100 1,900 10,400 Median duration of unemployment 16,800 12,700 10,800 6,000 7,200 2,800 2,500 2,600 14,300 All other estimates 5,900 4,500 4,100 2,400 2,800 1,100 1,000 1,100 4,400 (a) See Technical Notes, paragraph 10-11. (b) For standard errors for earlier periods, see previous issues of this publication. (c) The entries in this table refer to the number of persons contributing to the estimate.