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PRELIMINARY ERP BY STATE AND TERRITORY – INTERCENSAL ERROR

Intercensal error is the difference between rebased and the unrebased ERP as at 30 June of a Census year. It is calculated by subtracting the newly rebased ERP as at 30 June from the ERP as at 30 June based on the previous Census which has been updated using the components of population change.

For the 2006–2011 intercensal period, the preliminary intercensal error is 294,000. Unlike previous intercensal errors, around two thirds of the discrepancy can be attributed to the methodological and technological improvements made to the 2011 Post Enumeration Survey by the introduction of Automated Data Linking (ADL).

Over the history of intercensal error back to the 1981–1986 period, the unrebased ERP has been an overestimate three times and also an underestimate three times.

	1981–1986	1986–1991	1991–1996	1996–2001	2001–2006	2006–2011
	PERSONS ('000)
NSW	11.9	2.4	–15.8	–27.0	10.5	90.7
Vic	3.9	7.0	–20.9	35.6	–36.6	87.0
Qld	–32.0	11.1	15.9	5.8	–38.1	106.2
SA	–9.4	10.4	4.5	–9.6	–13.5	18.1
WA	–18.4	29.9	–3.3	11.5	–8.2	–2.9
Tas	0.4	–6.3	–1.1	–1.8	–1.0	–0.7
NT	–6.3	–6.7	–5.2	–0.2	–4.0	–1.0
ACT	5.5	4.2	–1.2	–4.3	–5.4	–2.1
Australia	–44.4	51.9	–27.5	10.6	–96.0	294.4
	PER CENT OF POPULATION AT 30 JUNE OF END YEAR
NSW	0.22	0.04	–0.25	–0.41	0.15	1.26
Vic	0.09	0.16	–0.46	0.74	–0.71	1.57
Qld	–1.22	0.34	0.48	0.16	–0.93	2.37
SA	–0.68	0.72	0.31	–0.63	–0.86	1.10
WA	–1.26	1.83	–0.19	0.60	–0.40	–0.12
Tas	0.09	–1.35	–0.23	–0.39	–0.20	–0.13
NT	–4.08	–4.05	–2.86	–0.11	–1.89	–0.42
ACT	2.12	1.45	–0.39	–1.36	–1.62	–0.58
Australia	–0.28	0.30	–0.15	0.05	–0.46	1.32