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HOUSEHOLDS AND FAMILIES
Over the past decade, there have also been changes in the types of families in Australia. The number of families increased from 4.3 mill. in 1991 to 4.9 mill. in 2001, with couple families with children the most common type of family over this period. However, as a proportion of all families, couple families with children decreased. In 1991 couple families with children made up 54% (2.3 mill. families) of all families while in 2001 this had decreased to 47% (also 2.3 mill. families). Other family types have significantly increased in number over the last 10 years. The number of couple families without children, comprising couples who have not yet had children and also those couples whose children have left home (‘empty-nesters’), increased by 30%, from 1.4 mill. families in 1991 to 1.8 mill. families in 2001. One-parent families also increased, from 552,000 in 1991 to 763,000 in 2001, an increase of 38% (graph 5.51).
HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY PROJECTIONS
Household and family projections are estimates of future numbers of households and families based on assumptions about changing living arrangements of the population. The ABS has published three series of projections for the years 2001 to 2026 - Series I, II and III. In Series I, the pattern of living arrangements as determined from the 2001 Census is used throughout the projection period. In Series II and III, recent trends in living arrangements are incorporated into the projections. It should be noted that estimates of the numbers of families in 2001 in the discussion below are derived from 2001 estimated resident population data in conjunction with 2001 Census data, and therefore differ from the 2001 Census counts of families mentioned above.
The projections show continuing growth in the number of households in Australia, from 7.4 mill. in 2001 to between 10.2 mill. and 10.8 mill. by 2026. This represents an overall increase of between 39% and 47% compared with population growth of 25% over the same period. As a result, average household size in Australia is projected to decrease from 2.6 people per household in 2001 to between 2.2 and 2.3 people per household in 2026.
The projected decrease in average household size reflects changes in the different types of households over the next 25 years. For example, lone-person households are projected to increase from 1.8 mill. (25% of all households) in 2001 to between 2.8 mill. and 3.7 mill. (28% to 34% of all households) in 2026. This represents the fastest projected increase of all household types over this period. The ageing of the population coupled with the longer life expectancy of women over men, increases in separation and divorce, and the delay of marriage are some of the factors contributing to the growth in lone-person households.
Family households are projected to remain the most common type of household, increasing from 5.3 mill. in 2001 to between 6.7 and 7.0 mill. in 2026. However, as a proportion of all households, family households are projected to decrease from 72% in 2001 to between 62% and 69% in 2026 (graph 5.52).
Between 2001 and 2026, the number of couple families with children is projected to increase slowly in both Series I and II, and to decrease in Series III. This scenario reflects a gradual trend away from this type of family and is related to increasing numbers of couple families without children (as a result of the ageing of the population, declining fertility and delayed childbirth) and increasing numbers of one-parent families (as a result of increased family break-up).
In 2001 there were 2.5 mill. couple families with children, accounting for just under half (47%) of all families in Australia. In Series I, which assumes current living arrangements of the population continue until 2026, this number is projected to increase to 3.0 mill. in 2026 (42% of all families). In Series III, which assumes changes in living arrangements observed between 1986 and 2001 continue at the full rate until 2026, the number is projected to decrease to 2.0 mill. (30% of all families) (table 5.53).
Couple families without children are projected to experience the largest and fastest increases of all family types in Australia. As a result, in Series II and III, couple families without children are projected to outnumber couple families with children in 2011 and 2010 respectively. From 1.9 mill. families in 2001 (36% of all families), couple families without children are projected to increase to between 2.9 mill. and 3.3 mill. families in 2026 (41% and 49% of all families respectively). This growth is primarily related to the ageing of the population, with 'baby boomers' becoming 'empty nesters', and to a lesser extent to delayed family formation and declining fertility of younger couples.
One-parent families are projected to increase from 838,000 families in 2001 to between 1.1 mill. and 1.4 mill. families in 2026. In 2001 the number of female one-parent families (698,000) was around five times the number of male one-parent families (140,000). This ratio is projected to continue throughout the projection period.