9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, May 2015 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 16/06/2015   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


ANALYSIS

This information is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimates based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These estimates should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. For further information, see Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 12 and 13.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the published trend estimates.

1 The June 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the May 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

2 The June 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the May 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.2%.

The percentage change of 2.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 10 years has been 2.2%.

Trend Sensitivity

Graph: New Motor Vehicle Sales - Trend Sensitivity


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) Rises by 2.2%
(2) Falls by 2.2%
no.
no.
no.

2015
February
94 213
94 201
94 270
March
94 478
94 520
94 336
April
94 620
94 722
94 113
May
94 636
94 845
93 697