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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
GERMANY, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
UNITED KINGDOM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Sometimes there are abrupt and sustained changes in the underlying behaviour of short-term movement series, termed ‘trend breaks’. Given that these occasions can distort trend estimates, the ABS takes such breaks into account when smoothing seasonally adjusted series.
Analysis of short-term resident departures to Egypt shows the introduction of a break to the series in February 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to ongoing political instability in the region. A trend break at December 2006 has been applied to the graph of resident departures to Indonesia due to movements returning to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. An increase in the number of short-term resident departures to Brazil is shown in June 2014, this was caused by the FIFA World Cup held there. A decrease in the number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia is shown in November 2015, this was caused by the disruption of air travel to and from Bali due to a volcanic ash cloud.
Breaks in the series for Brazil and Indonesia have been inserted at April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. Such initiatives included the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009 and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. These impacts were not apparent when analysing departures to some countries, including Egypt. Consequently a trend break correction was not necessary for this series. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanatory Notes Paragraph 26.
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