5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2003
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/11/2003
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ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TREND
QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES
The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased for the seventh consecutive quarter in September quarter 2003. The rate of growth has slowed to 2.1% from a high growth rate of 7.3% in September quarter 2002. The trend estimate for Mining (up 4.8%) and Other selected industries (up 2.0%) increased, while Manufacturing fell by 2.7%. The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery has increased for the past nine quarters with each major industry group contributing to this increase. The rate of growth (up 1.5%) was, however, the lowest increase of the past nine quarters.
Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining continued to rise steadily for the thirteenth consecutive quarter. In trend terms expenditure on both buildings and structures (up 4.8%) and equipment, plant and machinery (up 2.5%) continued to increase this quarter. The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing increased for the ninth consecutive quarter. While the trend level is the highest recorded, growth slowed to 1.7% in the September quarter 2003, the lowest increase since September quarter 2001. Building and structures fell by 2.7%, the second consecutive quarter of small falls. Equipment, plant and machinery increased for the ninth consecutive quarter. The trend estimate for Other selected industries rose by 1.0% in the September quarter 2003, recording a small
increase similar to that for the previous two quarters. Expenditure on buildings and structures and equipment, plant and machinery both increased slightly.
ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES
The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6.
Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in Paragraphs 26 to 29 of the Explanatory Notes.
The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:
TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
The fourth estimate for 2003-04 is 2.3% higher than the third estimate recorded last quarter. Estimates for most industries increased with Construction, Retail and Finance and insurance being particularly strong. Both Mining and Manufacturing expectations for 2003-04 remained relatively unchanged. Expected expenditure for 2003-04 is currently 3.0% higher than the comparable estimate for 2002-03.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES
Estimate 4 for 2003-04 is 3.7% lower than estimate 3 recorded in the previous quarter. Manufacturing, Transport and storage, Wholesale and Mining all contributed significantly to this fall, while the remaining industries had moderate increases. The fourth estimate is 22% stronger than the comparable estimate for 2002-03.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY
The fourth estimate for 2003-04 is 5.4% higher than the third estimate for 2003-04. This increase was driven by all industries. In particular Retail, Transport and storage and Construction all experienced significant increased expectations from the previous quarter.
Estimate 4 for 2003-04 is 3.9% lower than estimate 4 for 2002-03, with Transport and storage and Other services largely responsible for this fall.
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