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NOTE: An incorrect deflator was used in compiling the buildings and structures asset class for the Mining volumes series. As a consequence the chain volume measures for the total new capital expenditure, Mining and the buildings and structures series have been overstated. The key figures, relevant graphs, totals in publication tables 3, 11 and 13 and the movements in table 4 have been altered and the totals in spreadsheet tables 3A, 3B, 5A, 5B and 5C have been altered. Figures for other quarters and for other tables are not affected.
DECEMBER KEY POINTS ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
NOTES FORTHCOMING ISSUES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE An incorrect deflator was used in compiling the buildings and structures asset class for the Mining volumes series. As a consequence the chain volume measures for the total new capital expenditure, Mining and the buildings and structures series have been overstated. The key figures, relevant graphs on pages 4 and 5, totals in tables 3, 11 and 13 and the movements in table 4 have been altered. Figures for other quarters and for other tables are not affected.
BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES The trend estimate for buildings and structures decreased 2.6% this quarter, the second consecutive fall after growth in the previous 18 quarters. Both Mining (5.7%) and Manufacturing (4.3%) fell this quarter. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate for total buildings and structures increased 0.3% following a large decrease in the September quarter. EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY Trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery decreased 2.8% in the December quarter 2006, the third consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate has decreased by 1.9%. The strong increase in Mining has been offset by falls in Other selected industries. MINING The trend estimate for Mining decreased 3.7% this quarter, the second consecutive decrease after growth in the previous seven quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a large rise of 7.8% following a large fall in the September 2006 quarter. This rise has been driven by equipment, plant and machinery. Levels remain historically high for the industry. MANUFACTURING Manufacturing trend estimate fell by 1.9% in the December quarter 2006 which is the fourth consecutive fall. Both asset types experienced small declines. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate fell by 0.5%, which is the fifth consecutive fall. OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES The trend estimate for Other Selected Industries has decreased by 1.5% following a small fall (1.1%) in September quarter 2006. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate decreased by 3.7% following a small fall of 1.0% in September quarter 2006. The rise seen in the building estimate has been offset by estimated equipment investment falling for the quarter. Other selected industries capital expenditure remains at historically high levels. FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.
TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE The fifth estimate for 200607 is $74,385m which is 9.2% higher than the comparable estimate for 200506 and slightly higher (5.2%) than the fourth estimate for 200607. Most industries are relatively unchanged since Estimate 4, with the exception of Mining (14.7%) and Construction (15.7%) which have had strong increases.
BUILDING AND STRUCTURES Estimate 5 for 200607 is 30.7% higher than Estimate 5 for 200506. Mining ( 68.1%) and Other services (38.2%) had strong increases. Estimate 5 has increased 6.7% from the previous estimate for 200607.
EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY The fifth estimate for 200607 has fallen 4.9% since the comparable estimate for 200506. Estimate 5 is slightly higher (3.9%) than Estimate 4 for 200607.
MINING Estimate 5 for 200607 for Mining is 49.3% higher than the corresponding estimate for 200506 and 14.7% higher than Estimate 4 for 200607.
MANUFACTURING The fifth estimate for 200607 is 16.2% lower than Estimate 5 for 200506, and relatively unchanged from the previous estimate for 200607.
OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES Estimate 5 for 200607 is 2.5% stronger than the comparable estimate for 200506.
IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.
BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES Current price trend estimates for buildings and structures have been strong in recent years with a flattening out over the past three quarters. With the strong expectations for mining for the remainder of the financial year and into 200708 the indication is for sustained growth for buildings and structures. EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery displayed strong growth from June 2004. This lasted two financial years. In the past three quarters the trend has reversed and has been in decline. Expectations are that for the remainder of this year and for the following financial year the trend will continue to fall, although at a reduced rate. MINING Current price trend estimates for Mining have increased sharply over the 200506 financial year being driven by growth on buildings and structures. This has slowed in the past two quarters. Expectations suggest that capital expenditure will again strongly increase over the second half of this financial year and throughout 200708. MANUFACTURING After the peak attained in 200506, current price trend estimates for Manufacturing have been on the decline. Expectations are that this weakness will continue for the remainder of the 200607 before steadying in the following financial year.. OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES Current price trend estimates for Other Selected Industries have maintained a steady growth rate for several years. Expectations suggest that this growth rate will continue to rise steadily over the second half of this financial year and throughout 200708. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
